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by hansmayer 24 days ago
> Their revenue has quadrupled in just a few months

Maybe, maybe not. We haven't seen that S-1 yet. All we have is the 5B in lifetime so far. PLUS - revenue quadrupled or not, it only matters if their costs did not expand at the same rate or more. Revenue is not profit.
1 comments
aspenmartin 24 days ago
OK, so when S-1 comes out you will finally allow yourself to be wrong? Your prior is, a 1T company plans to IPO and their leader has been loudly committing an insane amount of fraud? I mean this of course is possible but that is quite the conspiracy. The scrutiny of an IPO would be a crazy thing to do if you were committing fraud at the scale you're suggesting.

Revenue is not profit yet the discussion in this particular thread is about revenue.

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hansmayer 24 days ago
> 1T company plans to IPO and their leader has been loudly committing an insane amount of fraud?

Ever heard of Enron, Theranos, SBX ? They were all hiding in plain sight - who could've thought they were frauds?

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aspenmartin 24 days ago
That’s why I said it’s possible but it’s a very improbable and weird prior assumption to make
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hansmayer 24 days ago
> weird prior assumption to make

No, at this level of capital involved, and so much opacity around the company financials, it's a perfectly reasonable assumption.

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danielmarkbruce 24 days ago
No, it's not. It's a stupid thing to say. Perfectly stupid assumption. There are 1000s of multi billion $ revenue companies operating and as a % the number that are fraudulent is close to zero, especially those public or looking to go public. There is always the possibility, but it's extremely naive to think it's likely.
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