[utopiah]

How would that work? They can't take the fabs (single door opened and dust makes it all useless) and even if they could they can't run ASML machines with their support. So... labor camp fabs on unmaintained STOA hardware from a single company everybody relies on? I can't imagine that scenario. Either they manage to redeploy the whole value chain (not saying it's impossible but doesn't seem to be the case at scale for now) or taking Taiwan by force is mostly a political show, not a technological one.

[ummonk]

Wouldn't the rest of the world encourage ASML to keep supporting the fab because they want the chips to keep coming?

[utopiah]

Which rest of the World? ASML already has restrictions on China from Netherlands (where they are based) and the US (which provides some core IP).

[ummonk]

My argument is that they would add an exception for TSMC in the event that Taiwan fell under Chinese control. The alternative would be an extreme supply shock to the industry that's responsible for most stock market and GDP growth in America.

[pepperoni_pizza]

China is working hard on getting their own fabs. Then the have no need to keep TSMC operational.

[utopiah]

As I said China is indeed already working on their entire value chain. They have been doing that for a while and they have made significant progress. Still so far they don't have the precision, scale and economical competitiveness than TSMC. If they get there then it will be a totally different scenario but that's not the case for now.

[Muromec]

It's not a if it's when. ASML doesn't pay fuck you money to their employees just to keep China from hiring them away.

Eventually ASML will get in same boat as all of the Western industries from shipbuilding and car manufacturing to everything else.

It may take one year or twenty, but law if it's a matter of national security for them, eventually they will get ahead.

[bigyabai]

If TSMC were to simply disappear, it would be a great day for Samsung/Intel but a godawful catastrophe for most HPC applications and consumer hardware. People aren't afraid of a fab takeover, they're afraid of TSMC disappearing altogether.

[utopiah]

It's the point of my question, I don't see how TSMC could not disappear if Taiwan becomes part of China.

[e40]

Simple, they invade and TSMC blows up their factories. Or, the invasion is successful and they control the factories.

I didn't say it was likely, but one of these two outcomes is possible.

[bearjaws]

If China has proven one thing, they can just rebuild the factories, sure it will be 5-8 years of depression but afterwards they will control a dominate player.

[Lorin]

That's assuming ASML and co would even supply the required tech should that happen.

[throwaway85825]

They need regular chemical deliveries from japan as well.