[petcat]

Canada would only have to patrol its southern Alberta border /s

No coincidence that Albertans are sparking up the seceding issue again. When 10% of the population produces nearly 20% of the country's GDP it's a breeding ground for contempt. And it also seems like Albertans are the butt of a lot of jokes from the other Canadians anyway.

I'm sure this US government would love to see an "independent" Alberta.

[jamie_ca]

You're rounding both ways to exaggerate your point. 2024 numbers, Stats Canada (via Wikipedia) has Alberta at 11.9% population, and 15.25% GDP.

They (and Sask too) do swing on the higher end in GDP per capita, but it's not a 2:1 by any stretch.

[throw0101c]

> […] 15.25% GDP.

Which isn't that far off from BC's 13.80%:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Canadian_provinces_and...

[tempestn]

And this is mostly thanks to the oil sands. Will that always be the economic engine it is today?

[rubayeet]

This is false. Alberta is NOT the economic engine of Canada, that’s a huge misconception of a group of Canadians (mostly Albertans) [0]

[0] https://youtu.be/5lSJpqA8RU4?si=fxwKpUFFKO7gK63E

[cmrdporcupine]

You're right but you should cite something other than the CBC, since it will just be immediately dismissed by the biased as biased.

Alberta is very important economically. I'm from there. Ontario (I live there) and Quebec and BC are also massively important. And fanning the flames of disinformation and playing grievance politics to make Albertans feel discriminated against has become an extremely serious problem.

Wab Kinew was very eloquent on this topic yesterday.

[jleyank]

I would think Ontario is the centre of Canada as it has the most people and the financial centre. Google's AI says 38% of GDP. And the problem Alberta faces is who wants to separate, what do they want to do afterwards and what ground do they actually own (vs. treaties that predate Alberta).

When Alberta at least catches up to Quebec in practicing being independent (runs its own police, collects its own taxes, has its own pension system, maintains foreign services, ... They might decide the extra taxes to pay for such is less "fun". And they need a border to ship stuff through.

[8note]

alberta has the border to ship stuff through, the only one that actually matters, to the south

rounding errors east and west dont particularly matter

[cmrdporcupine]

North America's biggest oil pipeline -- Enbridge Mainline, which has a capacity of 3.2M barrels per day -- runs east through Sask, Manitoba, ducks down through Michigan, and then splits before coming back into Canada in Ontario in two places (including Line9 ~1km from my house.)

Ontario is one of Alberta's biggest customers.

Then there's westbound ... TMX capacity of 890,000 barrels a day, to BC ports (and then on to China).

vs southbound lines to the US

Keystone, 640,000 BPD

and Express 310,000

Please check your facts.

[AlexandrB]

Did you watch this video? About half way through he confirms that Alberta has the highest GDP/capita in Canada and is the largest (per capita) tax contributor. Ontario is obviously larger in absolute terms, but it has at least 4x the population.

[cmrdporcupine]

As with any time you deploy an average... (And I'd expect better on this forum of all places)

Show me the distribution. Show me the median not just the mean. Show me the standard deviation.

Otherwise ... abused.

Yes, we all know oil is an extremely profitable (and environmentally destructive) commodity. That doesn't make the typical Albertans somehow responsible for holding up all of confederation. Just means oil is making some people very rich. For now.

I'm from there and my family is in Alberta. I can tell you now that the oil industry ain't doing jack squat for them.

[jleyank]

Do the oil profits even stay in Canada? Taxes maybe, but it’s not like the province owns the wells.

[cmrdporcupine]

They get to "own" them when it's time to "clean them up" after they're abandoned by bankrupt shell corporations, that's for sure.

https://www.pgic-iogc.gc.ca/eng/1588343274882/1588355750048

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/abaondoned-oil-well-o...

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/what-did-alberta-do-with...

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-more-than-1...

But Trudeau had it out for Alberta. Better off separating. Yep.

[ChoGGi]

I think 70-80% of investors are down South, so not much stays here no. And jack shit goes into the heritage fund, just for aimco to throw away (sorry invest).

[throw0101c]

> About half way through he confirms that Alberta has the highest GDP/capita in Canada and is the largest (per capita) tax contributor.

Nunavut and NWT have higher per capita numbers, but that's territory versus province:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Canadian_provinces_and...

Yukon and SK are in the >90k range, both ~5k below AB.

[dessimus]

So then by your arguments above, you're good with California leaving since they'd be a G6 nation on their own?

Because as you would might say: I'm sure this Canadian government would love to see an "independent" California.

[petcat]

Texas has entertained the idea of seceding for 150 years. And they would be a G7 country if they did. But they would have to fight a war to do it. USA already went through this once.

The only thing really stopping Alberta from leaving is whether or not BC, Ontario, and Quebec are willing to fight a war to stop it.

And that gets a lot more complicated if the US also wants Alberta to go independent....

[stackghost]

>The only thing really stopping Alberta from leaving is whether or not BC, Ontario, and Quebec are willing to fight a war to stop it.

Unlike the individual US states, Alberta never joined Canada. It was not an entity that existed prior to Canada's confederation. Alberta was basically pencil-whipped into existence by carving out a chunk of an already existing territory (the Northwest Territory).

Despite American and Russian destabilization campaigns in Canada, there is no legal mechanism by which Canadian provinces can unilaterally secede.

>And that gets a lot more complicated if the US also wants Alberta to go independent....

Recent past polling overwhelmingly showed Albertans in favor of remaining in Canada. This latest frenzy is widely known to be a foreign influence operation.

[swader999]

The implication that this somehow weakens Alberta’s constitutional status is false. Alberta is a full province under the Constitution of Canada with the same constitutional standing as the other provinces.

The Supreme Court has already ruled that Canada and other provinces would be obligated to negotiate terms of separation should a province ever vote to leave in a clear referendum.

Yes, support for leaving is probably at 10-20%. Just having the referendum will build the infrastructure and political machinery for keeping it alive for a long time from the first try. I live here and I'm not a fan of Smith for encouraging it at all.

[stackghost]

>The implication that this somehow weakens Alberta’s constitutional status is false.

I implied no such thing. In fact I was careful to use the term "unilaterally" when referring to secession. My understanding is doing it properly would require a full constitutional amendment.

[petcat]

> there is no legal mechanism by which Canadian provinces can unilaterally secede

Legal? Who's laws? Albertans can just declare that they don't respect Ottawa's authority, right?

Guns and bullets are the only "legal" currency. It's not paperwork.

[stackghost]

>Albertans can just declare that they don't respect Ottawa's authority, right?

Sure, but just like nobody gives a shit about what Sovereign Citizens do or do not respect, such a declaration would only carry weight if there are enough people that want to mount an armed rebellion. And despite what American influence operations would have you believe, there simply aren't. Most Albertans want to remain in Canada.

[jleyank]

If Canada cuts off the money tap, that health and security bill is going to be significant.

[selectodude]

Texas would be a G7 nation for about a week if they seceded from the US. Being the logistics hub for a country only works if you’re part of that country.

[nxm]

It’s just a logistics hub? Are you ignoring the oil and natural gas that’s supplying the world these days?

[selectodude]

I have a feeling Mexico wouldn’t torpedo their relationship with the United States by continuing to buy all their oil from Texas.

[bryanlarsen]

The instant Alberta secedes from Canada, the Indigenous would secede all unceded Treaty land from the independent Alberta. Which includes all of the tar sands, the source of Alberta's wealth.

Canada might not be willing to fight, but the Indigenous probably are.

[petcat]

> but the Indigenous probably are

None of this matters in this context. The indiginous people literally do not matter. It's bad, but it's just how it is when white Europeans start fighting over land in North America. We have 3 centuries of evidence.

[dessimus]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say if Canada wasn't willing to let Quebec leave, and they've tried with significantly more effort than Alberta ever has, then they're not going to let Alberta go.

[swader999]

We already have a clause in our constitution to allow for orderly withdrawal from Canada. We'd have to resolve the first Nations angle which would probably be more of a hurdle.

[peteyPete]

Of course the US gov would love to see an "independent" Alberta... They'd see that as easy oil reserves to put their hands on and a weaker Canada. They're working with traitors in separatist organizations as well as PP and trying to import MAGA into Canada.. Albertan's, due solely to their location, stand on oil riches... They don't have to do much to be the country's highest earners, its literally handed to them on a sticky black oil platter. (Not saying they don't work hard... loads of people work just as hard in other fields that aren't covered in gold though). They have the highest median pay in Canada, pay the least taxes.. Yet still spend their time crying and saying they're keeping Canada afloat... They're not Canada's highest GDP province... And other provinces don't spend their time trying to sell out to the US, even after the US threatening to destroy Canada, economically or otherwise. That's treason my guy. There's not too many ways to say it. Also, Alberta's population isn't even close to having the votes to even considering separating, without getting into all the other issues they're trying to pretend don't matter. The whole thing is a joke.

[wat10000]

According to Wikipedia, Alberta accounts for 11.52% of the national population and 15.25% of the GDP. Such injustice.

[AlexandrB]

That's not the injustice. The problem is that Alberta's political interests are very poorly (if at all) represented federally. This has come to a head a few times in the past with things like cancelled pipeline projects or the NEP[1]. So the issue is that Alberta has 11.52% of the population, contributes 15.25% of the GDP, yet must constantly fight against policies that put it at a disadvantage or run counter to its political leanings.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Energy_Program

> Estimates have placed Alberta's losses between $50 billion and $100 billion because of the NEP.[32][33] Alberta still initially enjoyed an economic surplus due to high oil prices, but the surplus was heavily reduced by the NEP, which, in turn, stymied many of Lougheed's policies for economic diversification to reduce Alberta's dependence on the cyclical energy industry, such as the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund, and also left the province with an infrastructure deficit. In particular, the Alberta Heritage Fund was meant to save as much of the earnings during high oil prices to act as a "rainy day" cushion if oil prices collapsed because of the cyclical nature of the oil and gas industry.

[bryanlarsen]

Cancelled pipeline projects? Ottawa doesn't cancel pipeline projects. All the problems with pipeline projects are caused by environmental reviews etc, which fall under legislation brought in by Stephen Harper, an Albertan.

It's much the opposite, Canada just spent $34B to ensure the Trans-Mountain pipeline got built. Alberta is the one that gets the resource revenue, but it's Ottawa that has to pay for your pipelines. That's hardly fair.

Alberta has one legitimate grievance, the NEP. Which is a plan that was cancelled by Mulroney over 40 years ago.

[vohk]

The AHSTF performed poorly because successive Albertan provincial governments slashed contributions to it, not because of the ghost of the NEP. It was established in 1976, then contributions were cut in half in 1983, and eliminated entirely in 1987. The NEP was gone by 1985.

What hurt Alberta was every cyclical crash in oil prices, and their steadfast refusal to implement additional revenue streams like a provincial sales tax while spending instead of saving their resource-boom surpluses.

[squigz]

> And it also seems like Albertans are the butt of a lot of jokes from the other Canadians anyway.

This is hardly my experience as a Canadian. They're not Newfoundlanders, for crying out loud...

[kergonath]

I thought Québec-bashing was a national sport.