[mbesto]

> but I suspect there’s a more important factor here: I think they’ve finally found product-market fit

Ahhh the classic startup term that's definition is nebulous. But also, since when does any definition of product/market fit mean a product is profitable? And profitable in what sense? Unit economics? Overall company?

[simonw]

Oh I'm absolutely taking advantage of the fact that "product-market fit" has a bit of a nebulous meaning here.

It's a great hook to build an article around. My core point is more that April 2026 was the point when Anthropic and OpenAI finally appeared to have figured out a credible business model.

[mbesto]

> My core point is more that April 2026 was the point when Anthropic and OpenAI finally appeared to have figured out a credible business model.

How so? What's specifically changed? We still don't know what their unit economics are and everything you've documented is basically speculation at this point.

[simonw]

> What's specifically changed?

1. Both Anthropic and OpenAI significantly increased the prices of their latest models. They're clearly not trying to offer the lowest-price-possible to drum up demand any more.

2. Both Anthropic and OpenAI no longer let enterprise companies buy discounted almost-all-you-can-eat subscriptions. Those big enterprises are now paying full API prices.

3. According to reasonably well-sourced leaks, Anthropic may be about to have their first profitable quarter.

And I didn't even say "profitable", I said "credible business model". I think getting companies to spend hundreds of dollars per month per seat, WITHOUT crazy subscription discounts, is a credible business model.

[lbreakjai]

Let's see how it goes in three months. I'm not convinced it's anything but an attempt to make the numbers look better just long enough to IPO.

Enterprises will take a while to adjust. We're going along with Copilot price changes in the short term "just to see what it'd look like". They will get customers to continue with the all you can eat mindset at API pricing for a while, but the finance departments will start asking questions very soon.

[tlongo]

> 3. According to reasonably well-sourced leaks, Anthropic may be about to have their first profitable quarter.

might as well be because of this:

> [...] with capacity ramping in May and June 2026 at a reduced fee.

And then, we have

> The agreements may be terminated by either party upon 90 days’ notice.

The timing of the "leak" of profitability is just as superb for Anthropic as the timing of the $45b deal is for SpaceX.

I wonder how this partnership looks like on August 1st...

[overgard]

I suspect it might end up being a credible business model for whoever buys the IP eventually (Microsoft, Google?), but I think OpenAI and Anthropic are so far in the hole debt wise that simply having a credible business model won't be enough to save them - it needs to be wildly successful.

[mbesto]

> And I didn't even say "profitable", I said "credible business model".

What's the difference? I would assume a business model that rewards profit (and therefore can sustain) would be considered credible...and not much else.