[gruez]

>You may need to retake economics 101 perhaps if you think raising a wage floor has a single predictable outcome in every scenario, which seems to be what you are implying.

>It puts varying pressures on other elements in a dynamic system in different ratios and with second order effects that can’t be fully predicted until you “run the experiment.”

Now replace "raising a wage floor" with "tariffs". Just over a year ago Trump administration cheerleaders were making similar arguments about "dynamic system" and "second order effects" to justify tariffs, predicting that prices might even drop due to [insert handwaving about fx rates].

[VanTheBrand]

Most predictions about the Trump tariffs from Trump and the people railing against them have proven to be hugely incorrect in both directions. If anything this proves my point that these are complex systems that are hard to predict.

[gruez]

>Most predictions about the Trump tariffs from Trump and the people railing against them have proven to be hugely incorrect in both directions

Really? Which ones? For the ones predicting economic calamity, they get a pass because they were didn't take into account TACO, which might be bad if you're grading it as a forecast, but hardly is a mark against them when it comes to economic analysis on the effects of a policy.