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by ronnier 17 days ago
It's close and it will happen. In my Tesla it already drives itself nearly 100% of the time through city streets, highways, rush hour traffic, complex situations (hardware 4 Teslas are amazing). I also have a Toyota truck and it feels like such a downgrade to drive without self driving anymore. It's only a matter of time before Tesla and others perfect self driving (as Waymo nearly has done) and we no longer have human driven taxis/ubers/lyfts and regular drivers are also on self driving. It will save time, lives and reduce road rage.
2 comments

Are you sleeping in the back while the Tesla drives? Until you feel comfortable doing so, its stuck in the eternal 90%.
It doesn’t have to be completely unsupervised for the driver to realize huge improvements in quality of life. I don’t even notice when people drive slow or cut me off. I’m just relaxing, fiddling with the music or talking to my family. And managing two toddlers is a lot easier when my brain doesn’t have to run a constant background job.

I do hope that unsupervised comes soon though. The tech is there, or at least far enough that I consider it better than my own driving. The hurdle is regulatory now.

If you're distracted and not actively monitoring an SAE Level 2 autonomous system then you're a hazard to yourself and others. Don't do that. You need to be ready to actively intervene with zero advance notice.
You're technically correct of course, but the fact of the matter is every driver gets distracted/tired and having the FSD safety net only makes things safer, assuming you don't go out of your way to get distracted. I've lost count of the times I looked over at a "dumb" car being driven by someone on their phone. Would you rather that person be in a Tesla using FSD or in their Subaru Crosstrek?
I view this question pretty akin to “people are going to get rip-roaring drunk before driving, would you rather they do that in a Tesla or a Subaru?”

It’s not something I’m willing to accept either socially or morally.

Unfortunately, even if we'd prefer to not accept it, we live in a world where those people exist. So I hope that they are being driven by their self-driving car when they inevitably drink and drive or fall asleep at the wheel. And to mitigate the impact of the ones driving a non-self-driving car, I'm going to use my self-driving certified-safest car to drive my family around.
Crosstrek. The Subaru Eyesight system will automatically disengage after a few seconds with no driver input so it's safer.
So far I've been impressed enough with the HW4 Teslas that I haven't had them do anything that I had to intervene to correct or prevent. It's pretty amazing at how well it handles all kinds of things - construction, weird merges, road debris. This morning, there was a tire in the middle of the road, which caused traffic ahead of me to slam to a halt. Mine had to brake hard enough that ABS engaged, and then navigated around the tire. I was impressed.
It's not close at all. Not where it snows in winter. This union will last at least a decade. Waymo and Tesla claim to be coming for northern states but ice and snow tell a very different story. You simply can't go FSD in a snowstorm.