[Mistletoe]

It feels like maybe the wheels are starting to fall off the AI hype train. I expect complete collapse once people start figuring out that the numbers on all this don’t make sense. I’m looking for investment portfolios that will weather that storm. If you are reading this and have a similar curiosity, this is a great place to start.

https://portfoliocharts.com/2021/12/16/three-secret-ingredie...

[rtkwe]

I've been thinking that for years about various sources and the bubble stubbornly refuses to pop on a convenient timeline so I'm falling back on the adage "time in the market beats trying to time the market". Index funds and chill is much more relaxed than trying to determine who's actually going to survive the AI bubble popping.

[DesiLurker]

this is the reason I refuse to budge from my index portfolio besides small 'play money' ventures. My investing philosophy is basically by the time it hits wire you dont know what portion of it factored in. especially in age of AI and automation IMO alpha will vanish faster as anyone can code up eqv of a bloomberg terminal themselves. So all thats left is how do you manage downturns, when market heads down 30% but your handpicked stocks go down 60% you need to have enough wherewithal to hold through bad times. this is where true test of faith comes, I believe I would be cowardly and sell out at wrong time. So its best to just hold index and market sort the bloodbath out itself.

[rtkwe]

Yeah I don't have the time or the patience to try to pick and think about long term choices beyond some sector or tailored mutual funds/ETFs. Doesn't help my job comes with pretty heavy trade restrictions so I have to get pre-approval for individual stock trades AND surrender any profits on sells less than 60 days after buying. Honestly probably wouldn't do much even without those restrictions but it completely kills it for me.

[ericmcer]

Market makers are not going to let anything collapse, there is not going to be a "storm".

The government and everyone with any money/power are fully invested in keeping the market going regardless of any kind of reality.

"Every American child under 18 with a Social Security number can have a federally recognized "Trump Account," a one-time $1,000 IRA seed deposit"

By doing this every citizen will personally have skin in the game and want markets to continue to rise.

[Mistletoe]

So what you are saying is “this time it’s different”. That’s a dangerous thought to have.

https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/s&p500-mean-re...