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I think the analysis-space really needs to be divided into three groups: software, media (audio/video/image) generation/alteration, and everything else. Software - this tech is ludicrously powerful and productive. But it's a force multiplier, not a "push button, receive software" system. Great devs that know how to wield it will become überdevs, becoming more productive and with lower defect rate (we have objective internal numbers backing this). But bad devs and non-devs will become high output slop factories. You basically need a dedicated platform team to keep things on the rails. I think this is very akin to the internet bubble. The process, institutional knowledge, and feedback systems developed at this time will grant the "survivors" massive edges after the pop. I think media generation is or will be a solved problem. Animators, 3dfx, background/filler music composers, those jobs are in sorry shape based on current trends. But a cost explosion could easily level the playing field. Everything else, where middle managers are aggressively pushing AI usage? Yeah maybe. At this time, other than for document retrieval (basically suped-up search), the "productivity" gains don't really map to value gains. Oh wow you can crank out powerpoint slide decks 50% faster. Write 50% more corporate emails employees barely read anyways. There's definitely a trust issue there with hallucinations. If the reliability gap can be solved (the bots don't even have to be correct, they just need to be less confidently incorrect, and I already see this somewhat with my own agents with tuning), then that could prove the turning point between "begrudging usage at the behest of higher ups" and "actual productivity enhancer." Does no one remember in the dot com boom all the internet skepticism? "I don't trust it with high value orders, what if it crashes or loses data? Call me old-fashioned but I'd rather write it down." That attitude was quite prevalent for years, even into the 2000s. |