[EliRivers]

I am but one data point.

I have a fairly broad portfolio of stocks, ranging from blue chips to outright bets inspired by the wallstreetbets crowd.

I have divested entirely of anything that relies on the spending power of the British consumer; retail, house builders, all of it. British people just don't have discretionary money to spend, and it's getting worse rather than better. Thus far, this particular stock market bet has gone well for me (although obviously it's a sign of bad times for the UK consumer). This is not the same as British companies; those with large overseas markets are still going. My Games Workshop shares have been absolute champs, for example.

I cannot speak for other countries, but the UK is one I can see with my own eyes. The people are just ending up with ever less discretionary spending power, where discretionary now appears to be gradually edging towards including "something to live inside" and "food."

[saargrin]

if youre so sure, why dont you short UK consumer related stuff?

[EliRivers]

You already have the answer, contained in your own question; because I'm not so sure. Puts are a dangerous game. I'm sure enough that the UK consumer is getting poorer to divest of shares; not sure enough (especially on timescales) to outright gamble on it. A lot of people have been 100% right that a company is doomed and then gone on to lose a whole lot of money on puts.

So far it's worked out very well. I moved the money into space and green energy.