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by hn_throwaway_99 29 days ago
But I think the action regulating CFCs is kinda what I'm talking about. As a consumer in the US, I don't ever remember having to sacrifice on my refrigerator or A/C - heck, I generally remember those appliances going down a lot in price from the 80s to the early 00s.

So my argument is not that we can't regulate technologies, but that we only do so when it becomes "technologically convenient". I think the comparison of CFCs to fossil fuels also highlights this point. CFCs were used in a relatively small area of the economy, and replacing them was pretty easy, so not a lot of regulatory will was required. Contrarily, the entire world economy runs on fossil fuels, so replacing them is an enormous task, and as one example you get tons of powerful invested interests pushing back. I honestly don't remember any crazy people shouting "the ozone hole is just an elite conspiracy", but you hear that all the time with respect to global warming.

My fear with AI is that it is such a powerful tech (or is at least viewed as such) that the powers that be are scared of being surpassed by another country/company if they slow down.

3 comments

If you want an example of a sacrifice caused by regulation before technology had fully caught up, banning sperm whale oil in automatic car transmissions comes to mind: https://www.nytimes.com/1975/04/17/archives/transmission-pro...
Or phosphates in dish detergents. Some will remember when our dishwashers stopped working well for a few years.

Various consumer review sites were regularly doing pieces on newer detergents that maybe-kinda work.

We didn’t have an answer when the bans swept the country. It took a while for things to catch up. Then it was fine again.

most cfcs are from industrial freon use, not domestic.

China continued using freon until 2019. They used it make insulation. The gasses will continue leaking from these buildings for a long time.

The question isn't what what you're experience of the 1980's, but what would have an alternate 1980's with flagrant use of freon been like? Freon was used everywhere, it's how air-conditioning worked back then. That technology was held back because of the hole in the ozone layer above Antarctica. With a lot of money poured into researching alternatives, alternatives were found, but humanity deliberately held back use of freon for the greater good of humanity.