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by rebuilder 27 days ago
You could both be right.
2 comments

Right the original article says "Do you think macOS will get better or worse in the next 2 years?" (rhetorically implying "worse").

That could easily be true and Apple "will use even more tokens and spend even more money".

Sure but what would be a bet that can disprove the author? If there’s nothing then the post is useless.
Something that would disprove the author would be an increase in industry code quality. A reduction in bug rates might be a reasonable proxy measure.
No, I don't think people will be spending even more money on AI if it is not becoming productive. 2 years is a long time to get used to it.
You can be completely right in a bad way, and it's what I suspect is going to happen.

Three years ago I mentioned to co-workers I was most concerned about juniors not being able to build skills to become mid-level or senior. In the past year others have started talking about the same. But also I had thought people who were already mid-level or senior could resist and control themselves enough to use it well - but in the past six months two different co-workers have independently said they've noticed their own skills atrophying. And with those skills atrophied, they'll have less and less input/direction for the AI tools.

My suspicion is that for everyone who has gone all-in, a few years from now, they will still see a productivity increase from their own baseline - but their baseline will have dropped from where it is now as they "get used to it".