[weitendorf]

If you factor in Nvidia’s profit margin due to the scarcity of the current bleeding-edge chips there is a path to a much larger cost reduction still.

There’s a lot to criticize Sam Altman for saying or popularizing culturally but I’ve come to think his “this is the worst it will ever be” is, in the long run, actually a very intriguing and underrated point.

In a decade training LLMs to the current level of sophistication, which is in my opinion rather advanced and probably has lots of additional upside just from constructing better RL training regime independently of hardware advancement, will become just as table stakes as running a database is now. I highly recommend everyone look into the Allen Institute’s projects in GitHub and HF because they have open source training materials (including an LLM from scratch off common crawl, and some quite interesting tunes of qwen) to get a taste for what will be in the near future afternoon projects or educational material. The future is going to be wild

[oblio]

These crazy hardware price increases will probably delay everything by at least 2-5 years. Then add at least 5-10 years for all these refinements and optimizations to permeate universally.

Until everything matures, most likely the current iteration of OpenAI and Anthropic will be long gone, along with their current business models.