[brandensilva]

China is about to flood the market and prove this notion wrong. If there is demand they want to meet it with supply.

But to your point, that is exactly how American companies like to play now. No one is stopping them from screwing over the consumer.

I have a Micron near me and they are building another chip facility but we are years away still so I suspect China will beat them to the punch.

[raincole]

Not just DRAM market, but the GPU market soon. China is the great equalizer of the world.

[gpm]

> Not just DRAM market, but the GPU market soon

China doesn't have EUV fabs... They've pushed DUV impressively far... but until they get EUV working industrially (and reasonable timelines are at least 2-4 years for that) it shouldn't be possible for them to compete for that market.

> China is the great equalizer of the world.

China is hardly an egalitarian society...

[bitmasher9]

The future is here now, it’s just not evenly distributed. China will mass produce something to the point that it is widely distributed. That is how China acts as a great equalizer on a global scale.

Another way China is a great equalizer is their willingness to do business with anyone that can pay.

[irishcoffee]

China is willing to do business while giving zero fucks about the environment they are destroying and the global warming they are causing. It really blows my mind people support the china thing so much around here.

[KptMarchewa]

China is deploying more renewables than most of the world, in some calculations outspending the rest of the world.

Chinese per-capita emissions have peaked at lower level than US and are already falling.

[irishcoffee]

According to whom?

[varius]

Do you think that OpenAI or Google gives any fucks?

[redanddead]

extremely hard to argue we give a fuck about the environment.

drop the bs

[unglaublich]

Isn't any other significant economy willing to do business with anyone that can pay?

[slashdev]

No, most of the rest of the large developed economies have some standards (e.g. against buying conflict minerals) and sanctions against certain regimes. China is quite happy to ignore that if they can get away with it.

[bitmasher9]

Right, go ahead and import Cuban cigars, Iranian oil, and Chinese electric cars.

Nations often impose trade barriers for various reasons. This is a very old tactic.

[roenxi]

> but until they get EUV working industrially (and reasonable timelines are at least 2-4 years for that)

Does this not count as soon? How often do you buy new computers? That seems pretty soon. I remember a year or few ago being told it'd never happen so they're already infinity years ahead of schedule if we accept that as reasonable. The rate they're pulling ahead of expectations appears to be so sharp there is a risk they leapfrog EUV to go on to the next big thing.

[MobiusHorizons]

How much does the node size matter for dram? My understanding was that it’s been marginal gains on sram since about 7nm TSMC. I would naively expect the capacitor size requirements not to shrink as well as logic, does the smaller transistor make up for the lower capacitance, or do they have to run at higher frequencies and refresh more frequently?

[daemin]

Not an egalitarian society, but their companies have a honey-badger like mentality from what I have read, where they ruthlessly reduce costs and margin down past where non-Chinese companies cannot compete.

[Curosinono]

China is better than USA in this regard though and the only other superpower able to challange the USA.

India is not even trying despite its size and we as germans do not push the EU as a union.

[Danox]

But they do build infrastructure, usable, infrastructure, ever already built that railway all the way to Tehran, and once the war is over between Ukraine and Russia, they almost certainly will build high speed rail all the way to Europe.

Would’ve been nice if the United States had built a rail system to north to Alaska or even a rail system to Chile to the south?

I guess doing things like that are hard to do when you’re busy fighting multiple wars since the early 1950s.

[makingstuffs]

There are no egalitarian societies. Societies in the west favour the super rich and believing anything else is simply delusional. Sorry to burst the bubble.

[throwanint]

To paraphrase Asimov:

If you think that South Africa is absolutely egalitarian, you're wrong.

If you think that Norway is absolutely egalitarian, you're also wrong.

But if you think that "South Africa is egalitarian" is as wrong as "Norway is egalitarian", then your views are more wrong than both of them combined.

To state that no country is absolutely egalitarian does not mean that "China is hardly egalitarian" has to be wrong. And even if some other country (say Norway) were to be as hierarchical as China, that would not disprove the claim that China is hardly egalitarian. It would just mean there exist other inegalitarian countries too.

[raincole]

No one says that China is an egalitarian society lmao. Where did you get the idea?

[Danox]

The thing about China is that they will iterate and iterate some more until they get there and then once there, well like BYD they will disrupt the entire market the cozy days of resting on your laurels for the American/Korean memory companies is over.

The big three memory makers will probably face their last big payday. I hope they enjoy it, as China will dominate the global memory market in three-five years due to their short term greed.

Apple will likely bring memory in-house, like they did with CPUs and GPUs. Anyone questioning the time it took to replace Intel and Qualcomm should consider the Chinese expansion in the memory market, which makes it a long-term necessity.

Apple has the money, and while its competitors have spent/squandered $1 trillion on the AI data center fiasco. Apple made a decision to stay away from the blast crater.

Meanwhile Apple which also has the expertise in engineering and chip design can do what is necessary and bring memory in house. Note: Nvidia and Broadcom have also been replaced along the way by Apple also.

Who knows maybe Intel will condescend to do memory too?

[HFguy]

"short term greed"

There is a certain amount of capacity to produce memory. They are building new facilities but it takes a long time. They have been burned going down this route many times in the past (e.g., losing money, firms that are no longer in business).

What would you have them do instead?

[Hamuko]

Not really sure if I'd describe what China has done to various manufacturing sectors as "equalizing".

[shdh]

Yeah, more global competition in DRAM would be great.

SK Hynix and Samsung are South Korean.

[overfeed]

> SK Hynix and Samsung are South Korean.

The Korean memory makers are playing the same game as Micron and simply moving existing capacity up-market.

GP was referring to upstart Chinese memory manufacturers like ChangXin, who - if their yields manage to catch the wave - could not have asked for a more favorable market after the big 3 have abandoned the consumer segment. Consumers who would have otherwise turned up their noses at CXMT will not have the luxury.

[xbmcuser]

Chinese manufacturers will probably takeover consumer ram that most of us use as current manufacturing contracts expire and Samsung SK and micron move all their production to HBM for data centers. Corsair recently released chinese chips based DDR5 sticks.

[throawayonthe]

> Corsair recently released chinese chips based DDR5 sticks.

hm interesting

https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/ddr5/chinese-memo...

[Incipient]

I've so far been anti-chinese memory in my recommendations, not because it's Chinese (I don't really trust any big organisation/govt other than the EU?) but because they've been very new, and it's not worth PC stability for saving $50.

However with corsair giving it their blessing, and their technology having matured a bit (a lot?), and more reviews showing good stability (longevity I suppose, is TBD) they're definitely worth recommending these days.

[esperent]

Right, so exactly two countries in the world control most of the memory market (US and Korra). As the person above said, more global competition would be great.

[XorNot]

China wants a sovereign DRAM capacity. They're playing an entirely different game then the commercial suppliers in the West.

[downrightmike]

And those commercial suppliers are making it too easy an putting themselves out of business before 2030

[bee_rider]

They’ll also go out of business if they make a massive investment to increase supply, and then the “AI” bubble pops, cratering demand. It’s a tough spot.

[sznio]

all that matters is next quarter.

[downrightmike]

That's implied

[mattmaroon]

They want both.

[Paradigma11]

They also want other countries to not have sovereign DRAM capacity.

[noosphr]

Help us Xi Jinping, you're our only hope.

[alexwwang]

It’s a horrible thought. Really horrible. You should come to China and work in those factories and mines for some years by yourself.

[noosphr]

You should work in the Central African Republic coltan mines if you think anyone has a leg to stand on.

[alexwwang]

I am living in China and I think you cannot just talk with imagination.

[55555]

I manufacture/buy electronics in Shenzhen and have visited my factories. They seemed fine to me.

[roenxi]

And are you going to enlighten us? What is life like working in a Chinese mine?

[alexwwang]

Not good. You may look for news online. If you can’t find anything, you might reflect why this happens.

[Curosinono]

You should try to see how poor US Americans have to life.

Normal people who have to wait for an event were doctors do free health care in a sport gym for a handful of days.

[zdragnar]

The Chinese healthcare system is not so different from that in the US. It is primarily employer-sponsored insurance, with subsidized insurance programs for poor and rural folk.

Up until 2005, roughly 10% of the population couldn't even access healthcare, at which point the PRC built out more care centers and invested in training more doctors, but there's still a significant shortage, such that scalpers sell outpatient appointment tickets for 10-15x markup over the actual appointment cost.

There's plenty of ways the two countries are different, but healthcare seems like an odd choice to try to "one-up" the US on, even if its programs like medicare, medicaid, social security disability and others still leave gaps.

[Curosinono]

Thats not true though.

First of, even per capita, the USA is at 8th place while China is 74.

For sure China has a problem due to its gigantic size and amount of people to even be able to reach its people, but the health care costs are nowere as high as USA has. USA is actually the country with the highgest % of GDP spend for health care alone.

Just checkout a YT video from an US American going to a normal chinese hospital and then compare the bill.

And in parallel the USA is dismantling medicare, medicad and co.

This is also directly reflected in the life expetency: US Americans are getting less old than Chinese people.

[zdragnar]

Rural China has a per capita GDP 1/10th of the US adjusting for purchasing power; if their health care wasn't cheaper only the very richest could afford anything at all. Even the wealthy coastal areas are 1/3 of the US.

China and the US have the same life expectancy of 79 years, which is a very recent phenomenon due to the 2005-2018 changes I mentioned earlier. Obesity, lack of exercise and other cultural factors weigh down the US life expectancy compared to all other Western nations. China's use of abortion during the one child policy era also prevented a lot of people who would have had chronic medical conditions and disabilities from being born.

It is not yet true, however, that Americans are getting "less old", though it may soon depending on how China manages it's own growing obesity problem and tobacco use.

[alexwwang]

I cannot say more details or I will face the risk of being charged as leaking the nation’s secrets. No kidding. I regretted to start this issue.

[viccis]

Why would I, as an American engineer and user of tech hardware from China for quite some time now, need to immerse myself in the Chinese factories as if they are somehow worse than other ones throughout the world?

Thanks, please give my regards to Kash Patel.

[alexwwang]

You just cannot see your privileges.

[viccis]

It's not that I cannot see them; it's that I don't care. And I certainly don't entertain sanctimonious "le China bad" nonsense like that. You live in a country where every 5 years has been substantially better than the previous 5 for a while now. You don't understand your own "privileges" if you can't understand what it's like to live in a country on a free fall that has foreclosed on the possibility of ever building anything again unless it's the latest investor ponzi scheme.

[alexwwang]

I don’t object what you said. But I think it’s just naive to think the country which seems to keep on being better is a life saver. Surely I have my privilege, compared to my fellow citizens. But that’s just what makes me more disappointed if someone simply praise this country “oh your country is great. You gonna be the first place” or so. Because I know that does none business to me or most of the people like me on this land.

And I know you don’t care about it. It’s understandable because you have your own concerns to devote to. Never mind. But just don’t put all these stuff in a simple way. Please remember the problems beneath those achievements are much more and make a larger numbers of people suffered than those who are benefited through those achievements.

I guess we might have more similarities than disagreements if those issues are abstracted out the country level.

[baq]

China can afford and has the political will and power to centrally plan parts of the economy it feels like planning. Cars are obvious examples and if dram is next, western manufacturers should brace for impact.

[dominotw]

man i keep thinking. why cant india get into stuff like this. Do their own manhattan project to build factories and tech for this and immigrate experts with high salaries.

[spaceman_2020]

As an Indian, my quality of life would be improved more by the Indian state first figuring out how to make functional roads and garbage collection systems

India needs to first figure out the absolute basics

[KptMarchewa]

The way you pay for it is by producing goods that other countries want to buy.

[blackoil]

During Mao/cultural revolution for all the bad, two good things were great focus on K-12 education and reducing religious fundamentalism (curbing religious powerhouses). Both of them are now biting India, alongwith standard problems of corruption that plague most poor democracies.

[rescbr]

Both issues also plague Brazil.

At least we have the CIA to blame on religious fundamentalism.

[unmole]

Tata and ASML recently signed an agreement to build a fab in India: https://www.reuters.com/world/india/tata-electronics-asml-pa...

The Indian Government is heavily pushing for domestic capabilities.

To understand why India failed to replicate the Chinese or East Asian model, I recommend A Sixth of Humanity by Devesh Kapoor and Aravind Subramanian.

[Synthetic7346]

India doesn't have the coordination China does

[jmb99]

I am typing this on my return flight home from a business trip in Delhi. There are many other areas the Indian government needs to be focussing on first.

I had a similar view to you ~2 weeks ago. Spending some time there very quickly made me realize that there’s a lot of other things that are much more pressing.

[tonyhart7]

such as ?????

[Curosinono]

I would argue that they are hold back by their own culture. Hygene, safety, etc.

Higher education want to move or distant themselves from the poor, dirty or just caste separation.

If you have the feeling that certain things are not your problem, you are not rising.

[raincom]

Thanks to Indian constitution and other laws, incompetence is heavily praised and promoted. Go to any public high/elementary schools, go to any private colleges, it is rampant. It has taken three generations to produce these bad results. Of course, I am not saying that students are dumb. It is just that many smart kids in villages if given an opportunity, will leave India in a heart beat because they don't see a bright future for their future kids.

[spaceman_2020]

Indian bureaucracy thinks extremely short term. The state prioritizes extracting revenue over all else. So many baffling short-term decisions over everything from corporate tax breaks to a incentives for global events like Formula 1.l

You really can’t expect the same bureaucratic setup to think in terms of the decade+ it would take to be competent at something like chips

[raincom]

Indian bureaucracy exists to enrich themselves for their next ten generations. The bureaucracy itself promotes, recruits incompetents. There is no way to reform such a bureaucracy.

The whole system needs to be dismantled while an alternative system gets built; given the nature of Indian politics (freebies/jobs/reservations to certain groups; monthly stipends to certain groups by borrowing money while at the same time looting public funds), it is impossible.

[esseph]

I suspect Chinese factories will get built first, but quality may take a few years to really nail down.

Basically:

China floods the market with cheaper but less QA'd parts, makes a gazillion dollars, is able to spend said money to fix yields / QA issues and streamline operations, by the time that happens Micron and maybe a few other existing players will have new memory production, and then we'll have a flood of cheap, reliable memory. 4yr, maybe?

[cyost]

They're doing decent enough already for consumer electronics. Corsair is selling 16GB 6000MT/s CL36 DDR5 sticks in China using memory from CXMT: https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/ddr5/chinese-memo...

[curiousllama]

How long would it take an aggressive company to expand production capacity? I always thought it takes a few years, at minimum, for even established players to stand up new fabs

[amluto]

As far as I can tell, Micron and SK Hynix are using EUV lithography and may be constrained by availability of the equipment, whereas CXMT does not have EUV machines. There were reports that EUV lithography is needed for high yields, but CXMT appears to be proving that wrong.

[magicalhippo]

Micron was dragging its heel on EUV and only got it last year[1].

Seems it's mostly useful for LPDDR modules which are predominantly used in battery-powered devices and to improve margins.

[1]: https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/micron-sampl...

[scheme271]

LPDDR is used by the Nvidia rubin platform. I can see AMD using lpddr as well because it gives you denser memory at the same or reduced power budgets.

[tayo42]

I guess we can't bit these yet. I've been thinking about upgrading my ram for my laptop but it's like half the price of a new laptop lol

[ahartmetz]

It is not a law of nature that Chinese products are lower quality (cf. electric cars) and I don't see why they would go for that. They can just bin what they produce like everyone else and sell their products for what they have been tested to deliver.

[nomel]

But it is a near law that the first to market attempts will fully embraces the deeply engrained culture of 差不多, until market forces beat it out of the product line.

[kdheiwns]

That's no different from the Silicon Valley mindset of cashing out and jumping ship.

[fittingopposite]

What is 差不多?

[decimalenough]

Chabuduo, basically "good enough" (but often not really). Classic essay on the topic:

https://aeon.co/essays/what-chinese-corner-cutting-reveals-a...

[khriss]

Seems very similar to the Indian concept of 'Chalta Hai'!

[bendangelo]

Basically means, “good enough” attitude.

[xeonmc]

Not "good enough", but rather "close enough". Very different connotations.

[esseph]

This has nothing to do about nationality, it has everything to do with building and running a brand new, highly technical, mass production facility.

[Ekaros]

The west absolutely loves enshitified products. So why not sell them what they want? If they wanted quality they would pay slightly more and do something about it.

[bnolsen]

It's pretty sad it used to not be so bad in the US. This is what happens when ethics and morals are removed from the culture.

[dylan604]

And historical record of the lack of QA coming from Chinese manufacturing

[AngryData]

Because we buy that stuff even without it. And if you make both good and crappy products, why sell the good stuff internationally?

The US did it when it was a bigger steel supplier, good steel was sold domestically, crappy steel was sold elsewhere. If you got crappy steel in Africa at the time you might have thought US steel was garbage with poor QA, but in reality US steel was great and they just shipped the crappy stuff because people still kept buying it.

[epolanski]

China is a gigantic country where one in 6 humans live that either produce directly or indirectly, 70%+ of the world's goods.

It's quite difficult to make general statements at such a gargantuan scale encompassing every single sector.

China has an abundance of terrific QA in electronics and advanced technologies as much as it has an abundance of the opposite, just simply due to its sheer size.

[WarOnPrivacy]

>And historical record of the lack of QA coming from Chinese manufacturing

My endlessly excellent Chinese gear (Dahua cameras, XikeStor switches, etc) doesn't know what you're referring to.

[ssl-3]

Mapping around defects in RAM has been a viable thing for a really long time.

I remember reading about it in Linux contexts decades ago, and these days it's something that Windows does automatically.

When can I expect this flood of cheaper RAM with less QA? I'd like to contribute to the gazillion dollar pile as soon as possible.

[dzhiurgis]

Don't think they'll flood the market. Instead gov will subsidize entire vertical (gpu, memory and power) - you'll just buy deepseek tokens on the cheap, just like EVs, solar and batteries. In return you'll give away your data.

[joe_mamba]

>China is about to flood the market and prove this notion wrong.

China is very far away from flooding the DRAM market.

[tpurves]

China does not have sufficiently leading edge fab capabilities to fill DRAM demand.

[onlyrealcuzzo]

Yet...