[try-working]

The Big 3 memory producers are really super charging their Chinese competitors CXMT and YMTC. They will IPO this year and they will be able to get massive funding for their build outs.

If the Big 3 had been more prudent, they could have kept profits lower and avoided this, but now they've probably dug their own grave and will see massive decline in profits starting from 2027/2028 when Chinese capacity really comes online.

[lmz]

The article has examples from history of overexpansion and crashes. Would rapidly expanding (or keeping profits lower(??)) be beneficial long term for the Big 3? I bet they think it's better to bank the surplus now. The Chinese will have to get their investment back somehow too after the expansion spend.

[georgeburdell]

Profit is not a concern for the Chinese

[try-working]

Well, they're about to lose massive market share to CXMT and YMTC.

[lmz]

If they're screwed either way then the rational solution is to bank the extra cash. Then at least they would have cash at the end of it. If they are production constrained how would reducing profits help in any way?

[zargon]

We wouldn't be switching to Chinese manufactured memory if Korean & US memory wasn't exorbitantly priced. They're forcing the switch.

[lmz]

It's a capacity constraint. It's either consumers switch or the HBM buyers switch and I know which one I'd prioritize.

[rldjbpin]

while it looks like outlandish fantasy today, looking forward to their competitors dumping consumer memory in a couple year's time.

regardless, this industry goes through such cycles (which have killed weaker companies and made the situation worse). high time for the memory "OPEC" to disband.