[mvkel]

That's one of the things he said. He also said the exact opposite.

He repeatedly says: if we’re off by a year, we go bankrupt.

In nearly the same breath, he said AGI is 2 years away.

He's operating like AGI is imminent but not saying it. And he's operating like AGI is a decade away, yet buying tons of compute at gouged prices.

Someone expecting imminent AGI would fear being outscaled, because if they don't win on energy/compute, they lose.

So his revealed beliefs are more like: ~10% chance AGI in 1–3 years ~40 chance 4–8 years