[quantified]

SpaceX is a bit misinterpreted.

There is little chance of Mars being profitable. Every colonization (and we have a rich history of them) is "successful" if it is profitable for the backers. But unlike North America or South Africa for the Europeans, there are no resources there worth bringing back. It's a cool vanity and possibly scientific project but not an interesting business.

Renting out all the GPUs stockpiled by Musk sort of is, unless they get constrained by power, water, etc. Launching them into space may be worthwhile for the short term. That's a business that can be profitable, but not in a way that matches the cost of the equity (with Elon strings attached all over it).

Practically, if you didn't like the idea of Iran threatening cables under the Strait of Hormuz, wait until your Starlinks (and your zero-G factories producing incredibly important whatevers) are threatened by a hostile nation. For commercial applications in space to become normal, military protections in space need to become normal. Now you've bought an interesting new world.

Really, SpaceX is Musk 3.11 for Workgroups and you have however long til he expires to find out how good that is.

[ipaddr]

Going to mars won't be profitable unless each ticket is billions but space offers a new arena where new materials cheaper power and a new surface exists. It's like buying in on Apple in 1979.. it goes on a big run dies and is reborn and 45 years later its worth so much in profits.

Thankfully the richest man in the world owns it and is young and hyper and crazy enough to stick it out.

[bruce511]

SpaceX could easily be a good buy, but it is indeed different to the others. For starters it's two businesses not one.

SpaceX is clearly a leader in the field and (including StarLink) has some real profit centers. Mars is a distraction, but perhaps a useful way to build out tech that may have usefulness elsewhere.

It comes bundled with xAI. And that's much more of a gamble. The market can probably bear more than 2 (not Open Source) eventual suppliers, but history suggests 2 winners and a bunch of very small 3rd places.

Is xAI in the top 3? Doesn't feel like it at the moment. But clearly this will suck resources away from SpaceX in the short term.

So this one is riskier, but with potentially more upside.

[perilunar]

Mars might not be profitable, but the asteroids may well be.

[quantified]

I agree. When the focus is Mars and not closer/better things, is that misdirection or ignorance?

Asteroids themselves are not a slam dunk for quite a while, even without inflation you've got well over $1T to invest to get something usable out of one.