[orsenthil]

If the prediction markets are between people, why do people bet against the mostly likely outcome at all ?

Real anecdote. For e.g, during Superbowl 2026. The markets were allowed bets to be placed until 6 minutes to close, when Seahawks were way ahead of New England Patriots. The probablity of Seahawks winning was almost 99% and any person who places a 1000 dollar bet will make 1100 in 6 minutes. Where is the 100 dollar going to come from? Who loses that?

[philsquared_]

$1000 would return $1010. The money comes from people who want to close their trades early rather than wait for the market to settle. Often times no one actually takes these offers and then it just sits in the order book.

[orsenthil]

wow! excellent explanation. Thank you!