[janalsncm]

> We find that the most successful users traded frequently in sports markets, often for different teams (81% of the gains)

Am I missing something or is this almost the whole story? Sports betting apps ban users who are too successful. Polymarket doesn’t.

So if you have a killer football game prediction algorithm you’ll only be able to use it for so long on sports betting apps, but Polymarket won’t ban you. Plus the apps will limit the size of the bets you’re allowed to make.

[Aurornis]

> Sports betting apps ban users who are too successful. Polymarket doesn’t.

Polymarket is set up as a market between users. Someone has to be on the other side of the trade.

With betting apps, the house is on the other side of the trade. If you're too good they choose not to trade with you.

The alternative for the betting apps is to give worse payouts to everyone to cover for the wins of the long-tail experts. This would degrade the experience for the average bettor on the platform. Maybe that would be a good thing because it would discourage them from playing, but I digress.

[hunterpayne]

The most money can be made in markets which have the worst correlation between reality and the market price. There are types of markets on PM which are very far from reality. There are types of markets which are very close to reality. It isn't surprising that sports markets are in the first category.

There are also political markets, where it is clear campaigns manipulate the prices for the same reasons they will publish polls showing they are gaining or ahead. The CA governor market is especially far from reality. This is compounded by the fact that Americans can't trade this market so the distance from reality is especially bad for American election markets.

That being said, that most people don't make money on PM isn't surprising. The same thing is true for most markets. You only invest (business) time into something if you are getting a return. So those that are actually good at making predictions put the time into making trades, so they are the bulk of the trades and the bulk of the profit. Same thing happens with day traders on the equity markets.

[pinkmuffinere]

> There are types of markets on PM which are very far from reality. There are types of markets which are very close to reality. It isn't surprising that sports markets are in the first category.

I think you're claiming here that sports markets are "very far from reality". What do you mean by that? Scores, injuries, fouls, etc are very well documented and objective things, so I can't figure out what you mean by "far from reality". If anything, these markets seem exceptionally "real", with well defined criteria and outcomes.

[hunterpayne]

What I mean is that people disproportionately bet on their home town team. And they often bet with their hearts and not their heads. But different places have different amounts of gambling and different quality teams. So places that gamble a lot but their local team isn't very good often have lines that are off from what they should be. So a team that might only have a 20% chance of winning a given game might be given a 40-50% chance on PM. Larger betting markets (eg Vegas) tend to not have these gaps as pro betters will take advantage and move the line back to where it should be. That's what I mean.

[pinkmuffinere]

Oh I see, you're saying the line for sports markets is significantly distorted because there's lots of fans throwing money around unwisely. I guess I just doubt this claim. The pro betters that make money at vegas can just as easily make money on polymarket. In fact in many respects it's even easier. If it's getting so distorted, then this is basically free money, and the pros will eat it up, bringing the line back to where it should be. Additionally, if you personally believe with high confidence that the line is distorted, you have the opportunity to make a lot of money. So the real evidence should be in your behavior -- do you bet on these mispriced markets? How much have you made?

[hammock]

Not OP, but I guess he is saying these (elections, sports) are markets where the participants have their own ideas about how they want them to resolve, and aren’t just markets with neutral participants only.

[whattheheckheck]

Interactive brokers have prediction markets open to usa people

[hunterpayne]

No PM though and that means the markets have very little liquidity. Also, I think you need to be an accredited investor to do it. Its very new but it is interesting.

[mminer237]

You do not have to be an accredited investor for IBKR or Robinhood.

[feurio]

I have absolutely zero knowledge about the area, but doesn't Polymarket just set up bets between users?

If you're a regular bookmaker, who is on the hook for any losses, then yes you would ban successful users. But in this case you just skim off a fee for each "trade" so there's no incentive to ban anyone.

[elkrapo]

It doesn't seem surprising that being a bookmaker in your behavior on sports is a big win since many people bet on identity instead of information in sports and with small bets/attention. It's interesting in that the pattern could have turned out to apply immediately across everything or something.

[ericmcer]

I always wondered if you could compare odds on the most advanced sports betting apps and those on futures markets and exploit any big diffs between the two.

[dnnddidiej]

That makes you a profitable bettor, so your accounts will get restricted. Best way to make money is if you have better predictions then bet on markets like totalisers, betfair etc. not with casinos or bookmakers.

[hunterpayne]

There are people who have been doing this in Vegas for years.