[signatoremo]

Do this: pick a public company (because their numbers are available), look at their quarterly reports in the last 3 years. Check the numbers they forecasted for the subsequent quarter. Verify how bad they missed. See how likely they could "completely shit itself and go bust". Hint: extremely unlikely.

[48terry]

What in the hell are you babbling about? Talking about what public companies do versus what the black mystery box with a question mark on it does is asinine. The entire point of this shit is that Anthropic's numbers AREN'T available. They can say whatever the fuck they want. This is why trying to get a straight answer out of them about their revenues and profits and overall business model is like the riddle of the sphinx. They have no obligation to report finances in the same way public companies are obligated to.

Ever notice that, by the way? There's a lot of exciting, non-GAAP shit going around in this field.

You're looking at this on the idea of a missed prediction. That's not where I'm at with this. I think Anthropic is straight-up lying. I think they are genuinely making shit up. This isn't a financial forecast, it's bullshit to hype up investors without actually having to prove it's based on anything whatsoever. It's either pure bullshit, or the numbers are so massaged and delivered at such a highly specific angle that it only becomes a logical way to display data if you're an MBA with a concussion.

We have absolutely 0 reason to believe what they're saying is true. We have lots of reasons to believe they'll say shit if they think they'll get more money out of it (see: every time they open their mouths and journalists rush to copy-paste the quote into headlines).