[electriclove]

The assumptions are that more compute (energy, chips) is needed to get more capable models AND more capable models will result in more spending by companies. That has been correct so far.

Yes, energy and chips are some of the bottlenecks. SpaceX has a potential solution (solar powered data centers in orbit) where they are uniquely advantaged - no one can launch as much or as cheaply as they can.

[amluto]

Datacenters in space might help with energy (that’s a big if, but let’s suppose it works out). How does it help with chips? The chips are still made on Earth, but once you launch them, you add some radiation exposure and you also add a dramatic demise in five years or so. Meanwhile an RTX 3090 still sells for $500 or so.

[electriclove]

In addition to working with Intel and others, there is the Terafan initiative: https://terafab.ai/