[runako]

The numbers overall are worse than I expected. I can't believe Serious People are talking about putting this in the market at a trilly.

> Starlink seems to be a real cash machine

It has been said more than once that Starlink financials cannot be analyzed apart from SpaceX financials. Very easy to move the launch costs from one entity to the other depending on whether it is more beneficial to show more revenue for SpaceX or more profit for Starlink.

[amluto]

The use of EBITDA for Starlink is also interesting. For something like terrestrial fiber, I can imagine thinking that there’s a lot of depreciation on the books, but that most of the equipment keeps working after the depreciation period or is cheaper to replace than it was to buy, and that the right of ways and attachments don’t really depreciate. But Starlink satellites are actually gone at the end of their useful life.

I have not dug into the filing to see how this really breaks down.

[Robotbeat]

Starlink satellites can likely have their life extended by quite a bit, like past constellation satellites did. But it doesn’t really matter as SpaceX is still upgrading capability like crazy. Starship will mean a factor of 10-100x Starlink capacity expansion.

[sethops1]

They most certainly cannot - LEO satellites literally fall out of the sky after about 5 years; they talk about this in the S-1.

[Robotbeat]

It’s a function of altitude. They keep pushing the altitude lower. This is not the only option, although it has a lot of advantages.

[jcattle]

I mean, the SpaceX bet is that what you mention for terrestrial fiber

> or is cheaper to replace than it was to buy

will also hold true for cost of mass to orbit. There's a lot riding on making that prediction come true for SpaceX, hence all the CapEx going into Starship.

[Analemma_]

I can't believe that my index funds are going to be looted to pay for this turd.

[thephyber]

We can thank Nasdaq for lowering the standards to fast track SpaceX into an index with only having 5% float. Soon after it lists on the major indexes, we are gonna have some turbulence.

[mnicky]

Time to invest in some value-stocks index funds then :)

[mooreds]

I thought the same darn thing. Too bad there's not a ex-Space-X index fund.

[weregiraffe]

Short SpaceX to compensate

[huevosabio]

The space launch operating loss is like 10% of the Starlink operating income.

So Starlink is a cash cow!

[throwaway85825]

The launch market is just very small and always has been.

[aeternum]

Looks like it's gonna be closer to 2 trilly

[3eb7988a1663]

What is a realistic scenario for how this plays out? After index funds mechanically buy SpaceX, the insider lock out expires and they all sell - how low does SpaceX go? Will reality hit and a $2T valuation instantly drops to a more "reasonable" value for an unprofitable company? Will it stay in the clouds?

Tesla seems in a world of hurt unless robots start making space centers from moon rocks, yet that is also defying gravity.

[maerF0x0]

Why are index funds going to buy it? Market cap is not the only inclusion metric for S&P500, for example.

[zippothrowaway]

They just changed the rules for NASDAQ and they are changing the rules for S&P500.

The game is rigged. Our pensions and 401Ks are being forced to buy this slop. They can't resist taking all of the money off the table.

[maerF0x0]

Please source this, people need to read it and know what's happening

Edit: here's one https://www.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/1t2msfk/wsj_sto...

[Huppie]

I remember a recent episode of the Rational Reminder podcast about this, it's not as bad as it may look...

https://youtu.be/QaQHdF2DeRY

[dzhiurgis]

Rocketlab market cap is ~$70b (ATH right now tho). Not hard to imagine SpaceX being worth 30x.

[abirch]

When do we call AI bubble? Like 2 trillion value and losing billions.

[aeternum]

No need to worry because bubbles can't exist in space

[Zigurd]

This time it is different. All the best commencement speeches say so.

[maipen]

As if any of the marketcaps actualy reflect a company's true value. It's never just about financials.