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by atleastoptimal
29 days ago
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That's like saying that improved gas mileage and energy efficiency will make oil obsolete. In certain domains there are no ceilings to return on compute. For example, offensive/defensive cybersecurity, it will be an arms race of who has more compute to patch up against more sophisticated attacks, and who runs more sophisticated attacks >Americans will get to enjoy their rusty infrastructure and polluted air, America has very high air quality and fairly good infrastructure given their population density. |
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LLMs on the other hand have only been around for a few years. Large technological breakthroughs are much more likely.
In addition, I don't think the future is billions of people chatting with ChatGPT all day. LLMs can write deterministic code for many things, and in the end, we only need their "intelligence" and brittleness in relatively few scenarios. So, with good optimization, we shouldn't need so many huge data centers.
On the topic of clean air, the US is relatively spared at the moment because past governments were more reasonable. But just wait a couple of years under the current leadership and you'll see. Just from this morning, look at the top comments: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48214017