[kyledrake]

They're not going to get rid of them, they're just going to drive them underground, which will make them impossible to regulate, which will make using them less safe. I don't participate in prediction markets, but I would bet everything I own on this outcome.

[kube-system]

That's already what it is. They are an underground gambling site pretending that they're not doing things that they literally do by calling it something else. They're like a drug dealer who thinks they're slick by calling their drugs "research chemicals".

[wizzwizz4]

Making using them less safe means that certain kinds of better are less likely to use them, which may be a purpose of this legislation.

[tyg13]

Exactly. I see this common idea trotted out that "where there's a will, there's a way" -- if the government bans something, the ban will never be effective, because people still want that thing, and so a ban will just encourage violating the law.

But that's highly contingent on that thing being something people are willing to violate the law over, and on the convenience of that thing not being significantly impacted by prohibition. Neither of which are true for prediction betting (it's almost identical to sports betting in that regard, imo.) The only reason these markets proliferate is precisely because they are legal.

[peferron]

Especially if there's also a ban on related advertising. Polymarket and others are absolutely flooding the world with ads at the moment.