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by CobrastanJorji 38 days ago
Also, it's worth pointing out that the jury was obviously correct. Musk was lying his ass off. There is no possible way to imagine that Elon Musk, the hyper-online dude obsessed with news, AI, and AI news, would not be aware of the well-publicized events of a company he was personally massively invested in.
1 comments
unholiness 38 days ago
I'm having a hard time squaring this view with the prediction markets. 500k+ of volume on Polymarket[0] had Elon losing at only even odds until March, 2:1 until May 15th, and 3:1 before the verdict dropped.

It seems to have been widely reported from the start[1] and throughout[2] that the statute of limitations was a key thing Musk's team had to prove. If it was so clear, why did people think this case had legs?

[0] https://polymarket.com/event/will-elon-musk-win-his-case-aga... [1] https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/musk-lawsuit-over-o... [2] https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/05/14/technology/openai-tr...

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IAmBroom 38 days ago
Postulate: Prediction markets are not exceptionally good at predicting everything.
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awesome_dude 37 days ago
If Prediction markets were good at predicting anything, there would be no need for prediction markets (because the future is already clear to everyone).
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compiler-guy 37 days ago
Prediction markets depend on the "wisdom of crowds", but often the crowd doesn't exercise its wisdom--which is generally pretty good--but instead exercises its wishful thinking or desires.

cf: Sports betting.

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lesuorac 38 days ago
A lot of people on polymarket thinking something is the case is probably evidence that it's not.

https://www.google.com/search?q=percentage+of+people+who+los...

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