[gpt5]

I mean, Iran has been working on nukes for a while, and it has led them to a disastrous place of its own.

You could easily argue that the dictatorship is in a stronger place after getting nukes, but the act of building nukes have destabilized many regimes, including Iran. Iran could have been wealthy like UAE and the Saudis, with regional influence similar to Turkey, instead of being the punching bag of US and Israel.

[JeremyNT]

It's reasonable to consider the counterfactual but it seems like the closest parallel here is Pakistan, which pulled off the gambit successfully.

The years leading up to and immediately following successful acquisition were tenuous and it seemed like they were destined to become a global pariah if not a failed state. And yet now, they are a regional power.

So if anything maybe Iran just missed its window. Now with the US seemingly ready to enter a forever war with no defined objectives other than nuclear deterrence it's presumably too late, but maybe a more competent regime could have pulled it off in time.

[stogot]

You’re not saying much. Iran could have not pursued this strategy that has turned them into a pariah, but they did

It was an active choice not a missed window

[ZeroGravitas]

Apparently they restarted nuclear stuff because of the US supported Iran-Iraq war, so they never got the option to choose "nukes or punching bag", rather they were forced to choose nukes because they were already a punching bag.

[gpt5]

They would have been a lot smarter if they didn't start and end every speech of the supreme leader with death to America, death to Israel - the two countries so motivated to have them not get nukes.