[jldugger]

Could be worse. Steve Levitt has a story about working out ad spend causality and actively ignoring the truth[1]:

> LEVITT: And they said to me "[...] One time we hired this summer intern and his job was to do the newspaper inserts for Pittsburgh, and the guy was so incompetent that he just didn’t do it. And when the C.E.O. found that out, he said, ‘If you ever do that again, you’re all fired.’

> LEVITT: So, I said to them, “Well, O.K. But when you looked at the results, what happened to the sales in Pittsburgh when you were dark for a month?” And they called me back about a week later and they said, “You’re not going to believe it. We looked at the data in Pittsburgh, and we saw no impact on sales when they didn’t do any inserts for a month.” I said, “Oh, my God, that’s amazing! O.K., so when can we get started?”

> LEVITT: They said, “Are you crazy?” It was almost if they found out they didn’t work, it was far worse for these people than it was not finding out it didn’t work. Because then they had to explain why for the last 15 years they had been wasting $200 million a year. So, they were happy to just live in a world in which as long as there were ads in every market, every Sunday, life was good.

    [1]: https://freakonomics.com/podcast/does-advertising-actually-work-part-1-tv-ep-440/

[glenngillen]

I remember meeting a founder who had a moderately successful adtech business who was venting about the difficulty getting very large brands with huge spend on board. This is probably almost 2 decades ago now before what many of us take for granted in terms of analytics, so direct attribution between spend and return wasn't particularly common.

He was having great success with small and mid-tier companies, then he'd run a pilot with a massive global brand and the results would be even more stark than what he'd see with his existing users. But basically could not close a deal.

Because of exactly what you've shared here: "they measured on how much the spend, not on how much they bring in. Because they've never been able to do that. Their job is so much easier if nobody can ever see that latter figure they just go year to year asking for more budget and the more they spend the more everyone thinks they're doing a great job". I was naive enough at the time to think he was wrong and that couldn't possibly be true. But I've seen enough in the years since to realise he was right.

[tantalor]

The word for this is "cargo culting"