[bitmasher9]

1. I have only moderate confidence that the odds on prediction markets represent true odds.

2. I think the existence of prediction markets can change the outcome of events. See the Super Bowl Streaker as an example.

3. I don’t have a strong use for prediction market odds. In the few areas of my life that require forecasting I have sources of information i understand and trust more, sometimes with private data not available to the general public.

[jmye]

> 3. I don’t have a strong use for prediction market odds. In the few areas of my life that require forecasting I have sources of information i understand and trust more, sometimes with private data not available to the general public.

100%. I have no earthly idea what the value of these markets is for things I'm not an expert in (I assume they're roughly equivalent to asking the bots and teenagers on Reddit and pretending that's crowd-sourcing, given what they show in things I understand well), and I have no use for them in things I am an expert in.

But hey, at least government employees/soldiers can cash in on secret operations before they happen? That's fun, or whatever.