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by gottorf 39 days ago
Funny, someone cheated a temperature-related bet a few weeks ago: https://www.npr.org/2026/04/23/nx-s1-5797876/polymarket-pari...
3 comments

It's very strange that they think prediction markets "cut through all the noise of the current media conglomerates" and yet the temperature bet is easily manipulated, and any bets about war and other foreign affairs are resolved by reading news reports from the field and not some new group of independent arbitrators or investigators. The war journalists are even being pressured by the gamblers to change their reporting https://www.timesofisrael.com/gamblers-trying-to-win-a-bet-o...
Prediction markets seemed neat when I first heard about them, but they've proved to have "theory meets the real world" externalities I wouldn't have ever considered. Insiders betting on (and possibly influencing) military/diplomatic stuff, reporters getting threatened, weather stations getting hit with hairdryers. It's wild.
And those weather stations only have 1 degree celsius precision?