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by 7777777phil
33 days ago
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Don't necessarily agree with all of the writing in this article. But I just spent the past weeks reading into the whole AI valuation topic again (did dis in March already (1)). So I'll try to add some perspective: Form my research (1) Four widely cited 2025 enterprise AI revenue figures span 40x ($37B Menlo, $1.478T Gartner). The audit-grade floor you could defend on a 10-Q against $690B of 2026 hyperscaler capex is just $63.2B, or 9.2% coverage. Telecom 1999 peaked at 28%. Even after netting only AI-incremental capex you only get to 12-15%, which is still below the closest analogue we have. (1) https://philippdubach.com/posts/ai-capex-arms-race-who-blink... (2) https://philippdubach.com/posts/reconciling-enterprise-ai-re... |
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