[mullingitover]

I think it’s very unwise to bet against the advancement of technology.

> Will we shift towards slower/worse LLMs running locally?

Bet on faster/better LLMs running locally and invest/brace yourself for recession accordingly.

[verdverm]

This, I've switched to qwen36moe on a spark and it's on par with gemini-3-flash. It's way better than I expected and in another ~6 months I expect things to be even better for open models of this size.

My long term expectation is that the big labs will build big models primarily for training and distilling to economically viable models. Even if the model capabilities don't plateau so soon, I think the economics of this will.