[ElevenLathe]

One major axis on which LLMs could get better is energy (and in general material) efficiency, doing the same stuff they do now but with fewer inputs. I actually fear that we are very early on this curve. The period of time between electric arc lamps and the current state of affairs where electric light is almost free was more than a hundred years. Lots and lots of investment is taking place under the assumption that LLMs will ride that curve lots lots faster. If it doesn't -- or if there is some physical law which means we're already close against some asymptotic limit -- then we're talking about a generational misinvestment, and that's only one of the underlying but potentially false assumptions of the AI investment boom.