[thephyber]

> The Strait of Hormuz is, basically not a big deal unless you're driving your big ole' truck.

Worst take I’ve ever seen on this website.

> Americans are price sensitive and so some companies will have to absorb pricing increases, customers will absorb some others, and so forth. In other words, business as usual.

No. Not all goods/services have the same price elasticity. At some point, people stop buying some goods if they are too expensive. They stop commuting to work. We start to see breakdown of the supply chain.

Literally 100% of many towns in the US depend on trucks to deliver food to their grocery stores and the inventory on hand usually only lasts a few days. Once those trucking deliveries become unaffordable for either party in the contract, society starts to. Real down.

Consumers don’t magically make more money when the price of gas rises. It starts to crowd out their ability to spend on other things. The poorest of the working class likely has to commute the furthest so they will end up sacrificing something to keep paying for the commute - food or rent or utilities.

The US doesn’t weather this because we have “a sophisticated supply chain”. _If_ we weather it, it’s because we created the US SPR after the last major oil crisis and we have significant domestic supply (although not all oil is fungible so we might not have enough light sweet to keep the economy running at 100%).

[ericmay]

We are handling it just fine. Your perspective of struggle is very wealth-oriented. We aren’t struggling at all as a country.

The second problem with your argument is that you’re using it as an argument against the war but it’s actually an argument in favor of the war. Why is that? Because as Iran continues to load up on missiles and pursue a nuclear weapon they reach a point where they can assert control over the Strait and shut down shipping pending tribute to their theocracy (maybe if it was a Christian one you’d have a bigger problem with it? Idk?) and then we couldn’t do anything about it. The world isn’t static. Stop treating it as such.

[thephyber]

Equally bad take in your response.

Iran never attempted to develop a nuclear weapon. Literally 30 years of Netanyahu threatening it is just “weeks away” and Trump was the only US president to get suckered into that argument.

They have always used the threat of developing it as power, both domestically and regionally. It was 100% the exact same thing with Sadaam Hussein and WMD — they want to appear to have the strong weapon, but simultaneously don’t want to develop it or use it (until, ironically, Trump / Israel took out their leadership). Also, we were assured their entire nuclear program was “obliterated” summer 2025, so which is it? It can’t simultaneously be non-existent and an urgent national security threat to the US.

Now that Trump started the war in Iran, we are playing chicken with people who don’t care if they die or not (or so we are told). Not exactly a good position to be in against the “world’s largest sponsor of state terror”. We kicked a hornet’s nest and our political leadership didn’t stop to ask the experts (military, political, or economic) what were the completely predictable second and third order problems with this strategy. We couldn’t even get Trump to wait long enough to fill up the US SPR before starting a massive war in the Middle East.

To reiterate, we haven’t felt any of the actual pain YET. My arguments thus far are only of current harm, not the likely harm in the near future. That’s for next month’s comments.