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by topherhunt
32 days ago
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I think his agenda / point is that, viewed from Lindy's Law, given the SOTA in 2026, superintelligent AI arriving soon is vastly more probable than not, right? To make the case that "sure, AI capability and intelligence have grown exponentially over the past several years, but don't worry, they're about to abruptly level off and in fact won't blatantly surpass human-level intelligence within the coming decades" seems to have a high burden of proof unless your model is less "sigmoid" and more "abrupt plateau". |
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Why would that be? Nothing about Lindy's Law makes that promise. And even the SOTA in 2026 is over-estimated thanks to a trillion dollar industry trusted to not influence benchmarks.