[caconym_]

+1. It's insane how history has been rewritten here, though it probably helps that 95% of people don't understand what the fuck a forecast is. They translate "30% chance Trump wins" into "0% chance Trump wins" because 30 < 50. Try asking them whether they think a 45% chance of rain means it definitively isn't going to rain and hear the wind whistling through the empty space between their ears.

[troad]

I think most people genuinely read "49% chance" as some kind of ironclad prediction of winning 49 out of 100 seats, and therefore losing.

That's why people get all weird about probabilities flipping from 49% to 51%, and not at all interested in - say - a probability going from 60% to 90%.

[yongjik]

You know what... just down below there's a comment saying Nate Silver was always wrong, just like meteorologists...

¯\_(ツ)_/¯