[mbgerring]

I don’t think improvement is accelerating. We went from “computers can’t do these things at all” to “now they can” in a few years with the discovery of transformers, and now we get “it can do the same things, except incrementally better, at a drastically higher cost” every few months.

I don’t think that the current AI paradigm has infinite headroom for improvement, similar to how every other AI approach before it eventually hit a limit.

[literalAardvark]

Incrementally, higher cost? A model I'm running on a 10 year old entry level computer is better at programming than GPT4. Those are multiple orders of magnitude of improvement in a few years.

And the link I posted shows the amount of work a query can do increasing non linearly. You can explore the site for more detail and a graph that shows error rates getting halved every couple of months.

No one said anything about infinite. It doesn't mean we don't have headroom to spare.

Software itself took 80-120 years to get where it is today depending on how you count. Time is on AIs side here.