[dado3212]

But if you met an alien who said they'd been alive for 100 years you wouldn't assume they're on the verge of dropping dead: you would assume they live longer. It's a rough rule for when you don't have other information, and if you're arguing against it you need to specify what other information you're using to make that argument.

[XorNot]

But it only applies for when you have a single data point: it's more likely to be from the middle of the distribution then the edge.

So meeting exactly 1 100 year old alien makes it decent odds that's somewhere near the middle of their lifespan.

Because if you grabbed one random human, chances are you'd find someone roughly middle aged.

[seanhunter]

> Because if you grabbed one random human, chances are you'd find someone roughly middle aged.

That would only be true if the underlying distribution worked that way, which for the human population it doesn’t (global median age is 31, global average expected lifespan is 73), so for humans if you grabbed a random human, chances are you’d find someone less than middle-aged.