[paulpauper]

He only has 1.5 more months. If he's wrong he needs to own it. Same for Eliezer Yudkowsky. But these people have too much riding on their brands. No one has the courage to fess up to being wrong. Given how many podcasts he and others have been on professing this belief, it will be hard to just pretend otherwise.

[hollerith]

Yudkowsky has never predicted that "AGI" will be here in 1-2 years. He has been saying frequently for years that it is easier to predict how the AI juggernaut will turn out (i.e., very badly for us) than to predict when the very bad things will happen.

(I don't know about the other guy mentioned above.)

[quickthrowman]

Eliezer Yudkowsky, now there’s a name I haven’t heard in a while.

What has he been up to since finishing the finest work of literature ever produced, Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality? I’ve been patiently awaiting a sequel!

[arjie]

His new book has billboards along the highway to the Bay Bridge. Surprised you haven’t heard of him recently. His fame has skyrocketed. If anyone builds it, everyone dies.