I turned it on a week ago to see what it was like. I expected it to be significantly annoying, but I found basically nothing changed other than a bit of text in safari that says it's in lockdown mode. Otherwise I wouldn't have been able to to tell the modes apart. I was expecting the browser to be slower without JIT or use more battery but I haven't noticed any change, it's all still snappy.
Apple over hypes the "you need to be in significant danger" part. Basically anyone can turn this on and it's fine. The UX seems mostly exactly the same either way.
It basically degrades back to SMS if you turn this on. Obviously, this is fine for a lot of things, but most people generally expect more than that out of their messaging app in this day and age.
I thought it was common knowledge that all kinds of Americans (not to mention other nations) are routinely compromised with zero-clicks, mostly developed in the US and Israel.
This is the kind of assertion without evidence that just muddies the waters. “All kinds” of people is so vague as to be an almost entirely vacuous category and “routine” means almost nothing without an actual quantification of how prevalent and frequent the problem is.
It’s undeniable that the proverbial guns for hire make it easy (if not cheap) to target basically anyone — but just because the vibes are bad doesn’t mean we can just say “it’s common knowledge that …”
The fact is mitigations are costly in terms of convenience and ease of use. Helping people make informed choices about whether to enable mitigations and bear that cost requires more than platitudes imo
LARPing is imagining that Lockdown mode protects you from state-level actors. It is frankly baffling why a industry that has been laughing for literal decades at even the possibility of stopping state-level actors just turns around and uncritically believes Apple's marketing team with literally zero support, evidence or proof except for a long track record of failure. You would think that extraordinary claims would demand extraordinary evidence.
We have seen multiple software hacks resulting in >10 million dollar payouts. Apple's bug bounty program only pays out 4 million dollars (2 million dollars (2x) more than non-Lockdown) for a zero-click total compromise that can trivially worm to take down hundreds of millions of iPhones simultaneously. Even at the low end of that cyberattack payout range that is still a >2x ROI if your successful cyberattack depends on a iPhone zero-click, with many publicly known attacks being in the 10x ROI range. Lockdown mode, at best, raises the bar slightly for commercial profit-motivated attackers and reduces their profit margin from wildly profitable to slightly less, but still, wildly profitable.
And of course I am using the Apple bug bounty program as merely a available metric with at least some semblance of objective support. There are zero certifications, audits, or analysis that Apple has even attempted that would confirm any claim of protection against state level actors.
I strongly disagree that there is no evidence that Lockdown mode is effective; there have been numerous exposed, active iOS exploitation campaigns of which none have worked against Lockdown mode. When we're trying to prove a negative, that's actually some of the strongest evidence we can get.
The economics of the device exploitation industry are completely orthogonal from bug bounty payouts; the markets only overlap at the _extreme_ fringes. Trying to use one as a proxy for the other is meaningless.
In this case the body of evidence is still quite powerful though, given that not only do we not have any forensic evidence of compromise from a phone with Lockdown Mode, but in all public cases where chains were RE'd back out of the forensic evidence, they don't work when tested on Lockdown Mode! So, there's even signal that the lack of forensics indicating Lockdown Mode compromises is not due to artificial targeting or detonation gates, but rather successful mitigation.
(as an aside): I'm not trying to say Lockdown Mode is infallible; I am sure phones in Lockdown Mode are or will be compromised. But it's clearly a very powerful tool, and to try to argue that it is some kind of marketing-driven conspiracy, against the body of evidence of its success, using bug bounty payout numbers (???), as the grandparent post did, is ridiculous.
That is a total strawman. The standard of “effective” being used by the person I was responding to and Apple themselves is “protects against state actors targeting you”, not “has any benefit whatsoever” or even “has a material benefit”.
Protecting against state actors is not a instantaneous property of the present. It demands durable protection against compromise by state actors who can easily spend tens to hundreds of millions of dollars on teams of hundreds for multiple years to develop novel, durable exploits known only to them. To the extent that compromises exist, they would require expected resource expenditure in excess of what state actors can deploy or are in excess of the value derivable by state actors which is going to be in the hundreds of millions to billions of dollar range to constitute as being "effective against state actors targeting you".
Protecting against state actors means secure against Iran, Saudi Arabia, China, and the NSA. That is the unsupported marketing bullshit I am calling out.
> We have seen multiple software hacks resulting in >10 million dollar payouts
This sets a nice price bar for exploitation. Is someone willing to pay 10+ million dollars to get access to your phone?
The obvious caveat here is that for a lot less than 10 million dollars someone can be hired to hit you with a metal pipe until you give up your passcode.
> click total compromise that can trivially worm to take down hundreds of millions of iPhones simultaneously
Where is the profit motive in doing this? Possibility is one thing, but a realistic threat is another.
Is someone willing to pay 10+ million dollars to get access to your phone?
Not yours specifically usually, but there is a lot of money in a general tool that law enforcement can use to read out phones. Of course, most of them focus on physical access. In the few Cellebrite reports/presentations that have leaked, iPhones would fall after a relatively short time (IIRC a few months), but did better than most Android phones (except GrapheneOS).
Also, sometimes you do not need the 10M exploit, you can buy many cheaper exploits and make a chain yourself.
The obvious caveat here is that for a lot less than 10 million dollars someone can be hired to hit you with a metal pipe until you give up your passcode
If they hit you with a metal pipe, it's likely that you won't survive even if you give up your passcode. So most likely you are protecting something or someone else. Set up a duress PIN so that you have options in that case.
... really? Zero-click RCEs can be used on arbitrarily many phones until they are discovered which usually takes on the order of months. You do not need to burn them on every individual target.
As a example of how they might be used in that fashion for profit, NSO group had a revenue of 240 million dollars in 2020. Many of their customers were governments who wanted to spy on activists and journalists. NSO group was in the business of economies of scale to democratize access to journalist devices by reusing a small stockpile of exploits across many targets with enough revenue to assure a steady stream of new exploits as fast as they were burned.
You’re right, I misstated. It’s not 10 million per exploitation, it instead limits the pool of people who can exploit you to those willing and have the ability to spend 10 million+ on an exploit.
That is still quite a small pool, and there are other network effects preventing any Joe blogs with that much capital from launching an exploitation campaign.
Again, no. You do not need to spend 10 million on a exploit if you are working with a company like NSO Group who sells white-glove access to target individual as a service. The cost lower bound is going to be on the order of ((cost of exploit) / (number of times exploit can be used)) and the denominator there is going to easily be in the hundreds to thousands. Of course prices are likely to be higher than the minimum due to profit margins.
To, once again, use the same example of NSO Group as it is infamous and well-documented [1]. In 2016 it was 500,000 $ upfront and 650,000 $/year for 10 devices. That article claims Saudi Arabia was monitoring 15,000 phones at a average cost of 10,000 $/phone. In [2] it was 7 million $ for 15 devices, but the upfront versus marginal cost per device is not broken down. And this was a relatively "above-board" company in the sense that they were a legitimate business entity with government deals which commands a premium relative to random unknown blackhat organization with no reputation.
And again, my original comment was discussing commercial profit-motivated attackers for which 1 million $ is easily within reach and just a cost of doing business to unlock greater amounts of profit. That is less than the cost of setting up a McDonalds. There is a vast, vast gap spanning factors of millions between Joe Schmo and commercial actors and a even vaster gap to state actors. There is no evidence that Lockdown mode is adequate against even commercial actors, let alone the vastly more capable state actors.
"If you’re not then this seems quite paranoid, bordering on LARPing."
There are sooooooo many other situations where such device lockdown is warranted. Government intrusion, sensitive industry, journalism, anything ITAR/EAR covered, and more. Your reduction to a single issue is absurd.
Apple over hypes the "you need to be in significant danger" part. Basically anyone can turn this on and it's fine. The UX seems mostly exactly the same either way.