[mdemare]

When social security will pay out more than comes in, the difference will come out of general tax revenue. There are no books to balance. The retirement age may go up, but reducing or eliminating social security is electoral suicide.

[beagle3]

I'm sorry to burst your bubble, but that's not how math and economy works.

The US is borrowing half of what it is spending right now. That can only go so long (maybe 10 more years, maybe 20 more years, but definitely not for 50 more years). "General tax revenue" right now covers approximately half of government expenses, without having to cater to social security.

social security + medicare spending grow at 8%/year for the last 20 years or so. In about 30 years at this rate, it will be larger than the current federal budget.

And the math must add up.

If you are below 50, you will most certainly NOT have the same qualitative benefits that retirees today do. Either benefits will be cut nominally, or inflation will cut them really; But either way, if when you retire you get (in real terms of purchasing power) half of what this generation of retirees is getting, you should consider yourself lucky.

[eru]

> The US is borrowing half of what it is spending right now.

Are you talking about government expenditure and tax take? Or about the general economy?

[beagle3]

Just federal government.

Federal US budget is ~$4T$/year, taxes are ~$2.4T, loans taken ("government bonds") are ~$1.6T/year.

Highly recommended: reading Karl Deninnger on "the market ticker" on a daily basis. His style of writing is not for everyone, but the facts are, and it's hard to find them so coherently laid out in other places.

[eru]

Thanks. I'll check it out, if I find time to care about the American economy.