[xenadu02]

I've made this same argument so let me make a counter-argument:

There are some ways to get this off the ground much quicker. One or more companies could buy an existing non-leading-edge fab like GlobalFoundaries. That buys a lot of expertise so you're not starting from zero.

DRAM also benefits from being very regular and relatively simple. It used to be what you bring up on a new process node to help prove things out.

It also isn't impossible to reduce reliance on ASML if you're willing to throw money at it. That's definitely a super-long-game move but it could be done.

I'm not going to argue that someone is going to do any of this but if demand is sustained it is possible.

[cogman10]

It does help, but I have to wonder how many people are still working at glofo currently who are researching node shrinks. They stopped their research into the 7nm process in 2018 and all the indications are that they aren't really continuing it.

Meanwhile, I believe SOTA is at least 3 or 4 node shrinks beyond that 7nm process. It'll take years for them to catch up to where micron is currently.

[xenadu02]

That's fair. I had hoped GF was not entirely giving up but was going to wait until the tech for new nodes was proven and cheaper to obtain. It seems that is not really possible at the moment because anyone who is involved in that supply chain doesn't maintain the ability to stand up new processes on older nodes. Way too busy standing up new nodes.

So much for efficient free markets.