[ls65536]

They bought P.A. Semi, but it was for their design capability; they never had fabs anyway, and Apple still depends on TSMC and others for manufacturing chips. Apple building fabs to ensure a guaranteed supply of memory (or logic) chips would be an unprecedented level of vertical integration, even for them.

[zarzavat]

No RAM, no profits. Apple has vertically integrated in the past for less reason than this.

Moreover it's a massive economy of scale, while their consumer electronics competitors are busy fighting a losing battle against the server market for chips, Apple can undercut them, grow their market share and get even more service revenue.

[riffraff]

RAM prices surging in the AI hype era does not mean they'll stay there for decades (see xAI already letting one data center go), and it would take a long time for Apple to become competitive.

Should they also start CPU fabs? Batteries? Lithium mines?

[zarzavat]

The risks are not symmetric. If the RAM crisis becomes the new normal it threatens Apple's business model which requires large quantities of RAM.

On the other hand, if Apple invests in RAM production and prices fall, it's not like the investment is wasted, RAM is a commodity. They lose at worst the opportunity cost of deploying the capital inefficiently, but they have so much that it hardly matters.

Apple should take this crisis as a warning that they aren't vertically integrated enough to protect their business model.

As for batteries, Apple is not even close to the largest consumer of batteries. If they were an electric car company then yes they should be making their own batteries.

[Danox]

That’s a decision for the new CEO (thank God he’s a technocrat), more than likely Tim Cook, and John Ternus) probably have already decided on what they’re gonna do long-term, from the outside looking in Apple has already replaced five companies? In recent times.

Memory is well within Apples design and Engineering capability. Long-term, Apple has to think about the Chinese getting a bigger part of the market in memory because they can undercut the three company cartel worldwide in time with this fake AI memory crisis.

[Danox]

Apple in the same timeframe also bought Intrinsity, and Anobit (a flash/SSD memory) company the Apple Silicon design group probably can do the design and engineering in house and we know they have the money the question is do they have the will their history says they do.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anobit

[mlindner]

SpaceX/xAI is investing in creating their own fab. If they can, Apple certainly can.

[bee_rider]

We don’t know if SpaceX’s plan will actually work, they announced it this year and it is a long-timeline Musk project. These have… mixed results.

[UqWBcuFx6NV4r]

yeah. right after tesla self-driving.

[fhn]

that's crazy. Looks like Intel is part of this https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/intel-...

[rswail]

Part of the trump bullshit that the USGov has taken 10% of Intel.

It's actual corruption and the standard fascist model of corporate takeover by the state.

[rswail]

You've got to wonder why. It makes no sense for xAI to make their own chips.

The "integration" of SpaceX/xAI is just standard Musk-move-losses-to-the-company-making-money-at-the-moment bullshit.

Apple actually have the runs on the board, xAI has Musk-BS.

[Kon5ole]

>It makes no sense for xAI to make their own chips.

The initial investment in chip fabs is so big it can't be justified when the established players already make enough to satisfy demand, but right now they don't so there's an opportunity.

It's still risky for sure but it makes some sense that it happens now. Hyperscalers spend 100s of billions yearly, at some point the amount given to TSMC gets larger than starting your own fab.

If success was guaranteed (it's not, as AMD and several others have learned) I think many more co's would start their own fabs in the current market.

As for why xAI, well why not - many of the others who can afford a fabbing attempt can't risk getting on TSMC's bad side even for a year or two.

[Danox]

The Chinese will be the one slipping in because of this opportunity. The question is is whether or not you still want to be dependent on outside memory when the Chinese takeover a larger part of the worldwide market?

[shye]

They can’t.

Operating a FAB requires employing PhDs that are willing to work 8 hours shifts with no breaks (each removal of a bunnysuit is an expensive exercise), and there’s no reason to believe SpaceX is capable of hiring such people.

[CuriousRose]

There was a point made recently by Musk that the whole clean room idea is outdated if you can just ensure the path the silicon takes from wafer to lidding is clean. Seems solvable to me, but leaves me wondering why it hasn’t been done before. I assume there is no human handling of raw/etched silicon now anyway, so why does the whole room need to be clean?

[spicymaki]

The semiconductor fab process changes dynamically to manage yield. It is not a static environment, automating with robotics is fine when things are static like a automotive assembly line, but high end semiconductor fabs are a different beast (The analogy I heard was repairing a plane while in flight). Robots are not purely clean as well they shed contaminates as well, which must be managed too. Entropy is the reason why we still need humans in the loop.

[deadfoxygrandpa]

hmm yeah. its cool that musk knows more about this than the entire industry

[CuriousRose]

You could probably apply that logic to any innovation in any industry no?

Reusable rockets likely got the same ridicule, as did fast satellite internet, self driving and fully electric vehicles.

I can understand that Musk does not have the most palatable personality, but floating ideas and at least attempting innovation regardless of outcome over a long time is a net positive for society and should not be discouraged.

[CamperBob2]

Reusable rockets likely got the same ridicule, as did fast satellite internet, self driving and fully electric vehicles.

In those areas, Musk successfully leveraged government largesse to compete with fat, lazy incumbents who had either coasted for decades (rockets and satellite Internet) or who didn't bother to show up to the game (EVs, self-driving and otherwise.)

That does not describe the semiconductor industry.

Musk has never beaten anybody who actually put up a fight, as far as I'm aware. I guess Blue Origin technically counts, but again that's not exactly TSMC.

[khriss]

> self driving

Aren't we still waiting for that?

[Auracle]

It wouldn’t be the first time an industry got bogged down by prior knowledge. Hell, it happens to all of us.

[andsoitis]

think different

[LargoLasskhyfv]

So what? Maybe a hand full of full bunnies per shift, and another dozen or two half-bunnies. There aren't more. This can be seen/validated by some older yt-videos, where something went wrong in the fab, for instance a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FOUP ejecting a wafer in wrong ways into a machine, then being ejected by that onto the floor, and shattering. Causing all systems to stop, and all the warning lights beginning to blink in an expanding cascade. At about 4:30AM. Maybe 20 seconds later two half bunnies with face masks appear, another 10 seconds later a full bunnie. Some gesticulating ensues, full bunnie opens his suit, gets his flip phone, half bunnies downing their masks. All looking very concerned and exasperated. Having a really bad day. No more bunnies appear over several minutes. Video ends.