[mghackerlady]

China going for Taiwan would be the worst geopolitical move of the century, potentially worse than Germany's decision to invade the soviet union. They talk about reunification because it's good propaganda and both sides want it to a degree, but doing it forcefully just isn't something China would realistically do unless they really don't like their path of becoming an international trade and manufacturing hub

[ngruhn]

> but doing it forcefully just isn't something China would realistically do unless they really don't like their path of becoming an international trade and manufacturing hub

Sounds rational, but this decision is in a small number of hands. And those hands can change quickly. I also thought the US would never threaten to annex territory of a NATO member.

[mghackerlady]

Chinas power structure is misunderstood. Theres a small number of hands, yes, but they don't change quickly and actually understand how to play geopolitics

[chrisco255]

Offer to purchase imperial territory of a NATO member is not the same as a threat to annex it.

[ngruhn]

But threat to annex is what's happening.

[unethical_ban]

But we threatened to annex it.

[evdubs]

> would be the worst geopolitical move of the century

From a political perspective, perhaps.

> doing it forcefully just isn't something China would realistically do

From a military perspective, taking Taiwan by force would allow China to, "threaten the sea lines of communication and to strengthen its sea-based nuclear deterrent in ways that it is unlikely to otherwise be able to do." Taiwan would give China access to the Philippine Sea. https://gwern.net/doc/technology/2022-green.pdf

[esseph]

Everything their military has been doing for the past ~20yr or so has been toward capturing and securing Chinese waters and beyond, including Taiwan. It's a negotiating chip for them.

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/01/china-suddenly-...

[Danox]

Or the Japanese bombing Pearl Harbor which was another dumb move. At this point, the Chinese just need to bide their time by the year 2100 Taiwan will probably be part of China and North and South Korea probably will be reunified. Both are inevitable, and I don’t think it will take any shots went it happens.

[ckemere]

> and both sides want it to a degree

Is "it" the propaganda (useful to politicians for achieving political power) or reunification? My sense is that the number of Taiwanese that are enthusiastic about reunification has probably bottomed out in recent decade(s)???

[mghackerlady]

reunification. Yes, they've bottomed out as younger generations become more politically relevant but they still exist

[bawolff]

China seems to be recently building up its forces and putting a lot of money into military. I think it would be foolish to just assume its all for show even if it might be in the end.

And quite frankly, its only geopolitically stupid if they lose. Consequences for this sort of thing usually tend to happen if the conflict is long and drawn out. If the win quickly the consequences would likely be minor.

[Ekaros]

Just look at Iran. Nothing really happened to USA or Israel. Nothing will happen to China if they take Taiwan. Or maybe the "West" will boycott them and crash entirely.

[jasondigitized]

The USA did not take Iran. They essentially shot off fireworks, killed the figure head and then got check mated.

[bluGill]

Taking wasn't the goal. I don't understand the goal, but it is clear that taking Iran wasn't.

[chrisco255]

The U.S. isnt checkmated, the U.S. is enforcing a naval blockade against Iran and their oil based economy is in a free fall with rapid inflation. The U.S. is experiencing slightly higher gas prices but economy is still humming. Meanwhile the U.S. military has not exhausted all of its options while Iran has none.

[Danox]

The US is indeed checkmated like Afghanistan like Iraq and like Vietnam checkmated spinning your wheels spending money wasting money wasting time and wasting resources, checkmate.

With the addition of most countries now looking for other trade partners the Art of the no deal…

[wiseowise]

> The U.S. isnt checkmated, the U.S. is enforcing a naval blockade against Iran and their oil based economy is in a free fall with rapid inflation.

That's not much of an achievement for the first military in the world. That's like second military in the world struggling to take a village in Donbas region for 4 years.

[amanaplanacanal]

What would you consider a "win" condition here? I have no idea what the American administration is looking for as a win.

[lukan]

More like a draw it seems.

[esseph]

Definitely not.

Iran did billions in damage across the middle east, put a major dent in munitions stockpiles, and there is effectively no military way to shut down all of Iran and protect shipping. Too many drones, too many ballistic missiles, and it only takes one. This is basically like an insurgency on a macro level, where small and cheap weapons threaten very large very expensive targets.

[chrisco255]

Iran is completely blockaded right now:

https://mynews4.com/news/nation-world/centcom-naval-blockade...

The drones are useless if you dont have targeting systems which were taken offline by F35s 2 months ago.

[esseph]

Blocking Iran is going to do more damage to the world than it will do to Iran.

What targeting systems are you talking about? You can use optical targeting with a raspberry PI in the drone itself, pre programmed. Nothing for an F-35 to take out.

The EU is running out of jet fuel. 20-30% of the hydrogen needed for chip fab comes through the straight. Fertilizer for food comes through the straight, and planting season has already begun.

This was a political and economic disaster.

[tick_tock_tick]

So what Iran's basically fucked and the USA just gets an economic boost from military spending?

[strictnein]

> "They essentially shot off fireworks, killed the figure head and then got check mated"

I mean, that's certainly a take. A wholly inaccurate one, but it's a take.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Iranian_officials_kill...

[mghackerlady]

they've made everyone very angry at them, and can handle that since everyone relies on them. China, however, is trying to build that trust and forcefully taking Taiwan would have very severe consequences. The reason the fallout from iran isn't as big as the fallout from a war with taiwan is because most of the west at most puts up with iran. Invading taiwan, meanwhile, would cause massive problems with chip production. Think the anger and distrust towards the US due to hormuz but 1,000 times worse

[chrisco255]

The difference is Iran is a terrorist regime that murders its own citizens and funds violence across the middle east.

[mghackerlady]

so is the us, both are put up with because they control global trade to a degree