[Paradigma11]

"My estimate is that within 2 to 3 years, the lowest cost way to generate AI compute will be in space"

Soooo, how much did he put on that outcome on polymarket?

[geertj]

If you mean whether he’s putting his money where his mouth is, he is doing that by risking the future of the company that is his biggest asset on it. It may not be exactly 3 years. But is will very likely happen.

[Paradigma11]

The point is that he is not putting his money where his predictions are and we should not put any more stock in them than he does.

[itsmek]

I don't see how he's risking the future of his company by saying words that end up being false, he does that all the time and lying/exaggerating is probably an essential part of being an effective fundraiser these days. In my eyes an enforceable large bet would be much stronger evidence indeed than words.

If I'm building a warehouse and I say "this warehouse is going to house the worlds supply of x", am I risking the future of the company if that fails and I pivot to housing y instead?

[Gys]

Why would he do that? A successful IPO is the goal. His shares will go sky high. That is where his money is.

[itsmek]

Obviously, but their implicit point is that in your scenario you can win by bluffing as long as you can continue to credibly promise the moon and keep the bet rolling but in their scenario only the final outcome wins. Dude is famous for bluffing so it's a reasonable take.