[abhisek]

I partly agree. Agents are not going to replace senior devs. Exactly for the internal context and the decision making that comes with it.

But senior devs are also expected to have a compounding effect even pre-AI. Writing a single doc, refactoring legacy code to make it extensible, building security frameworks specific to the project and many more. All of these would compound the dev team.

I think the same will happen with agents working on a org specific paved path set by senior devs.

[himata4113]

They will (and already have) replace low-performing senior developers because a single high-performance senior developer can do a lot more than they used to.

I have personally noticed this a lot how multiple people can work on the same problem, but the more senior developers get way more miledge out of AI compared to those that are early in their carreers.

Another difference I've noticed is how many agents one can keep running without losing awareness.

It generally just raised the bar on what management will expect from developers which will result in a shrinking workforce. The only ones that will benefit are AI companies and the upper management since less employees means less management so lower management will get screwed too.

[simplyluke]

> will result in a shrinking workforce

Jevons paradox is already rearing its head, I've seen data suggesting open roles in tech are at their highest since the post-pandemic slump [1]. If you're a senior leader at a company and your engineers are now capable of multiple-times more productivity, is the logical choice to fire half, or set way more ambitious goals? One assumes engineers are hired because their outputs are worth more than their cost. If outputs, at least for those capable of wielding new tools, are higher, so is the value of that employee to you.

The universal thing I'm hearing from friends at small-mid-size tech companies, and experiencing myself, is that there is way more work and demand for it from senior leaders than they're capable of with their current teams.

1: https://www.ciodive.com/news/tech-job-postings-hit-3-year-hi...

[himata4113]

There is a limited things to work on, planning and orchestration becomes the bottleneck.