The problem here is that people who understand these systems are all retiring. Majority of the devs are over 60 and there's simply not enough new talent coming in to replace them.
So the real challenge companies are facing is will there be enough people to safely maintain these systems in the next decade. If they do not, it means failures in credit card systems, airline reservations, insurance claims and more.
It sounds like they will still need to hire and train human talent who can understand the code, and evaluate and integrate outputs of AI systems that conform to the specific compliance and data retention requirements of these industries. And also people who can enforce said compliance, and a lot of other things. Sounds like a complex problem without a neat off-the-shelf solution
True story. I used to work for a company that developed both mainframe software as well as “enterprise” software (based on Unix systems). The two sides of the house were pretty separate. While I was on the enterprise side, through a fluke of geography, I worked in the building with many of the mainframe folks. In a normal office, you might have emails go out about events like employee birthdays, marriages, and kids being born. In the mainframe office there were emails that went out about employee deaths. Several of the employees had walkers.
The age of mainframe folks is highly bi-modal. The original folks are dying of old age. There is a new crop of 35-and-under folks that have sprung up as they noticed that the work is very steady and the pay is good. Between ages 35 and 65, there aren’t many mainframe people.
That is the current landscape today. Mainframe engineers are in high demand and good ones are paid quite well.
I've heard from a global bank, they have one mainframe developer in the team who is past 70. She manages a critical credit card service and gets paid in the upper end of 6 figures to work 20 hrs a week. She's the only one who knows that system. Lots of stories like this.
> Majority of the devs are over 60 and there's simply not enough new talent coming in to replace them.
Yawn this tired old yarn, again. Mainframe development was offshored from the US decades ago. These retiring cobol programmers simply don’t exist in numbers that matter. The market could be to the companies doing the offshore work, but they’ve been throwing bodies at this problem for a long time, maybe there’s a market there maybe not.
Now bringing in AI agents that are incredibly good at software engineering into the modernization lifecycle can completely change the landscape. That's the vision we're building towards at Hypercubic.
Previously you might need 50 engineers and 5+ years to modernize a mainframe application, now with Hypercubic, we can compress that down to 1/5th of those estimates.
So the real challenge companies are facing is will there be enough people to safely maintain these systems in the next decade. If they do not, it means failures in credit card systems, airline reservations, insurance claims and more.