[ryandvm]

I dunno, man. I've been doing this for 20+ years and I think we're at a really important fork in the road where there are two possibilities.

The first is that AI is achieving human-level expertise and capability, but since they're now being increasingly trained on their own output they are fighting an uphill battle against model collapse. In that case, perhaps AI is going to just sort of max out at "knowing everything" and maybe agentic coding is just another massive paradigm shift in a long line of technological paradigm shifts and the tooling has changed but total job market collapse is unlikely.

The other possibility is that we're going to continue to see escalating AI capability with regard to context, information retrieval, and most importantly "cognition" (whatever that means). Maybe we overcome the challenges of model collapse. Maybe we figure out better methodologies for training that don't end up just producing a chatbot version of Stack Overflow + Wikipedia + Reddit. Maybe we actually start seeing AI create and not just recreate.

If it's the latter, then I think engineers who think they are going to stay ahead of AI sound an awful lot like saddle makers who said "pffft, these new cars can only go 5 miles per hour."

[golddust-gecko]

100% this.

I'll also add another factor: it's become increasingly clear at our company that AI-enabled humans are getting to the bottom of the backlog of feature ideas much quicker. This makes the 'good ideas' part of the business the rate limiting step. And those are definitely not increasing with AI, beyond that generated by the AI churn itself ("let's bolt on a chat experience or an MCP!")

So maybe the coding assistants don't get a 10x improvement any time soon, but we see engineering job market contraction because there aren't really enough good ideas to turn into code.

[hibikir]

Yes, but as the price of getting work done goes down, a lot of companies that were priced out of custom software before now can hire devs, as the value hiring a few can provide just goes up. Fewer people per product, absolutely. No more teams of 10 or 20 working on the same thing. But there's so much out there that doesn't get done at all because you'd never be able to afford it.

Simple marginal thinking: When you lower the price of something, it gets more use cases. A rich person might not take even more flights because they are cheaper, but more people will consider flying when they wouldn't have at old prices

[bborud]

You are supposing that AI is achieving human level expertise and capability is a given. I am not so sure. Right now that's much further from the truth than one might think at first glance.

[koonsolo]

Do you think the latter can be achieved with the LLM neural network architecture? I highly doubt it. Neural networks are very old tech, and it took us that long to get us here.

I'm sure we'll reach AGI at some point, but looking at AI history, I don't see that coming any time soon.

[WorldMaker]

> max out at "knowing everything"

LLMs know nothing but are great at giving the illusion that they know stuff. (It's "mansplaining as a service"; it is easier to give confident answers every time, even if they are wrong, than to program actual knowledge.) Even your first case seems wildly optimistic. The second case is a lot of "maybes" and "we don't know how but we might figure it out" that seems like a lot to bet an entire farm on, much less an entire industry of farms.

We sure are looking at a shift in the job market, but I don't think it is a fork in the road so much as a Slow/Yield sign. Companies are signalling they are willing to take promises/hope to cut labor costs whether or not the results are real. I don't think anything about current AI can kill the software development industry, but I sure do think it can do a lot to make it a lot more miserable, lower wages, and artificially reduce job demand. I don't think this has anything to do with the real capabilities of today's AI and everything to do with the perception is enough of an excuse and companies were always looking for that excuse. (Just as ageism has always existed. AI is also just a fresh excuse for companies to carry on aging out experience from their staff, especially people with long enough memories/well schooled enough memories to remember previous AI booms and busts.)

But also, yeah if some magic breakthrough makes this a real "buggy whip manufacturer moment" and not just an illusion of one, I don't mind being the engineer on that side of it. There's nothing wrong about lamenting the coming death of an industry that employs a lot of good people and tries to make good products. This is HN, you celebrate the failures, learn from them, and then you pivot or you try something new. If evidence tells me to pivot then I will pivot, I'm already debating trying something entirely new, but learning from the failures can also mean respecting "what went right?" and acknowledging how many people did a lot of good, hard work despite the outcome.

[anon84873628]

I'm skeptical of LLM "reasoning" but they sure as hell know a lot. That's what the embeddings are: a giant semantic relationship between concepts.

[WorldMaker]

Embeddings are still mostly just vectors into n-dimensional K-means clusters. It isn't "knowing" two things are related and here's the evidence, it is guessing two things are statistically likely to be related, based on trained patterns, and running with it without evidence.

It has no "semantic understanding" as we would define it. It's just increasingly good at winning cluster lotteries because we've increased the amount of training data to incredible heights.

[anon84873628]

Can you explain how you "know" two things are related? If I ask you the similarities between a cat and a dog, is your answer based solely on an understanding of their genetic phylogeny and how those genes express traits?

Grouping vectors in concept space is exactly how you create semantic understanding. The proof is in how good they are at creating semantically valid text. The fact that it took massive amounts of data is irrelevant. That just shows how much knowledge is encoded in all our language. It takes humans a ton of training to know things too.

[WorldMaker]

> is exactly how

We don't know that. It seems like great hubris to declare we know how the human brain works. You are asking me to explain how we know things and then telling me we've already figured it out in the same breath, and that's hilarious.

It doesn't take massive amounts of language data to train a baby human. It is almost entirely just: "Look. Here's a cat. Can you say cat? Cats go meow." "Over here, your aunt has a dog. Dogs go woof."

There's generally a flood of non-lingual contextual data in such moments such as sights, smells, sounds, movements, touch but that also only further underscores how different LLM training is from anything we'd consider human learning. Our memories aren't just "conceptual spaces of linguistic topics", they are complex sensory maps where a smell can remind you of the first dog you ever met. There is so much of our human knowledge that is not and never been encoded in most of our languages.

The fact that LLMs take massive amounts of linguistic data is relevant, because it shows how far we still have to go in barely scratching the surface of how the human brain seems to work. (Which again, we know only the barest details. Anyone who tells you they know 100% of how the human brain operates so far tends to be a snake oil salesman.)

[anon84873628]

We do mostly know how the brain works at this level of detail, and it is akin to Principal Component Analysis. There are only so many ways it could work, unless you believe in dualism. My question was rhetorical. All you've described with the other stuff is a "multi-modal" model (and ignoring all of the "biological pre-training" that took place through millennia of evolution). The interesting (and perhaps surprising to some people) thing is how well pure text training can compensate for the lack of other senses.

[wiseowise]

Encyclopedia and Wikipedia know a lot too. Knowledge isn't much of use on its own, it's about how you use it.

[anon84873628]

Well Wikipedia can't write an essay for me, and LLMs can.

I'd say they are quite adroit at using their knowledge.

I mean, is Mythos finding all these vulnerabilities not evidence enough? Does AI Studio not clearly understand React and use it artfully?

[koonsolo]

I agree with you, but a big drawback is that the accuracy or confidence of their output can't be estimated.

So they surely know a lot, but you are never sure if the info is correct or not.

[anon84873628]

They can estimate confidence based on distances in that state space.

But yes, it gets tricky.