[maxglute]

Iran extracting Hormuz tax rounding error on prewar $60 barrels vs current $100 war premium. Paying Iran what they ask is pocket change.

The geopolitical reality is US gets disproportionately fucked if OPEC+ doesn't have to care about US regional US security umbrella leverage... forced to cooperate with Iran, GCC countries and Iran can price US shale out of export market while saving 100s of billions per year on not buying US services/hardware (which potentially drops their fiscal breakeven per barrel below US shale). Iran can increase toll 500%, i.e. $50 barrel + $5 Iran tip and every sane global actor would still choose MENA oil who can push prices and supplies that bankrupt US+VZ+CA oil network, if only out of cathartic lulz.

This is the real strategic dilemma, US protection racket leverage is what incentivizes GCC producers to price barrels that allow US shale to survive, and recycle 100s of billions of petro dollar into US hardware and services. If US unable protect i.e. US doesn't have capabilities to prevent Iran from glass GCC infra and US doesn't have capacities to survive forward basing as security provider, then that leverage gone. Now obviously US won't let shale go bankrupt, but CONUS energy would simply become another subsidy/burden item.