[tristanj]

This is a silly article. It assumes the situation in the Gulf is finalized, calling the current situation "checkmate". It implies the game is finished, even when all sides know the status-quo is unsustainable. Neither side agrees to the terms of the other. The conflict, which is currently paused, is not resolved.

This article is written two months into the war. We are still in the early stages.

Recall the situation in Europe two months into WWII. It is November 1939, a month after the fall of Poland. A naval and economic blockade is going on. There is no fighting outside of minor naval skirmishes. The conflict is stalled. Harsh words are exchanged. Nothing important is happening. WWII entered a lull where basically nothing happened for 8 months, until the invasion of the Benelux in May 1940.

We are currently in a similar lull.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoney_War

[dazilcher]

> It assumes the situation in the Gulf is finalized, calling the current situation "checkmate".

To be fair, the article does not assume that: it analyzes potential next moves and concludes that a certain outcome is inevitable.

To harp on the chess metaphor, most games are conceded when the result becomes obvious, before reaching literal checkmate.

Whether the analysis is accurate is a separate conversation.

[tristanj]

The article's conclusions are bunk. It's too US-centric and does not consider the political stances of other Gulf states. The UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain have all explicitly rejected the toll as a political position. The article claims (without evidence) that all these countries will roll over and accept Iran's demands.

[grebc]

God help us if it turns out your comparison to WWII is anything more than a bad analogy.

[tristanj]

This war will be a large regional conflict but it won't expand past that. Neither of Iran's allies (Russia and China) care to join the conflict and defend Iran militarily.

Iran is also a pariah state after firing drones and missiles at pretty much all of its neighbors.

[drcongo]

It also claims that Pearl Harbour happened in the first months of WWII.