[skissane]

The more control Iran exercises over the Hormuz, the greater the motivation for the Gulf States and Iraq to build alternative transport links (oil and gas pipelines, rail) which bypass it. In the short-term, it gives Iran a big advantage, but the more they press it, the faster its value will decline.

This war has accelerated the pre-existing energy transition away from oil and gas, and by threatening the Hormuz, Iran is giving that transition even more momentum. And the further that transition progresses, the less value this leverage has.

This doesn't really help Trump, since his big concern is short-term political consequences (mid-terms this November and the 2028 Presidential election). But 5 years from now, Iran may find the value of its Hormuz leverage has declined significantly.

[causal]

While true, I think you're underestimating

1) how long it will take just to bring wells back online, let alone a whole new distribution network

2) how vulnerable pipelines are

3) how much cheaper and faster shipping on water is

I would at least double the estimated timeframe needed to make the strait matter less.