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by pfisherman 42 days ago
I don’t know about this. After some time sitting with it, I think that mid level and senior ICs - especially those slow to adapt - are going to be at risk of getting replaced by entry level “AI native” kids. Net on net it probably washes out to “normal” patterns of turnover and hiring once things settle.

Think “Smithers, we need to hire some of these kids who know computers!” Only fast forward about 30 years and str.replace(“computers”,”agents”).
1 comments
tavavex 42 days ago
That would only be true is AI usage experience was equivalent to domain experience, especially since the former keeps getting easier. If anything, companies might want to hold onto their seniors and midlevels, because they collectively decimated the process of creating new ones by refusing to hire and train younger workers. If later down the line they have a need for someone young and AI-experienced, they could just reach out into the endless job market and scoop up as much as they like.
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pfisherman 42 days ago
In some ways domain experience can be a hindrance, with ingrained pathways and practices shaped by constraints that no longer apply. My personal opinion is that you probably want a mix of domain experts who are enthusiastic about AI and some kids who are free of preexisting dogma, and are willing challenge assumptions and try out things that the old heads might chafe at.

An example from software engineering is that all production code should undergo meticulous human review. Saying “no” to this sounds crazy to an experienced SWE, but might not actually be that crazy.

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tavavex 42 days ago
I think the constraints will remain in some fields, especially where there is a high price to pay for mistakes and consequently additional regulation. You can't vibe review code that will run on medical equipment, aircraft systems or industrial machinery. It doesn't matter how few people work in these fields, the fact that they shut off the tap to making new domain experts, while everyone and their grandma is learning to use AI will mean that the experts will eventually be at a shortage after retirements, while the enthusiastic AI users will be very abundant and underpaid.
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